Al-Nahar, Lebanon, August 8
Syria now seems to be in the midst of two battles: the first – a diplomatic one – led by Russia, and the second – a military one – headed by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. These two fights will likely shape the direction in which Syria is headed in upcoming years.
On Turkey’s end, Erdogan is not satisfied with any political solution that leaves Assad in power. He recently agreed to join the international coalition against the Islamic State, in order to fight the Kurds of Syria and overthrow the regime in Damascus.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is determined to see Assad stay in power. He provided Damascus with weapons and munitions, and seeks to refocus that international attention away from the removal of Assad himself. Not too far from there, Tehran has been providing Assad with a steady flow of military supplies, crucial for the regime’s survival.
Erdogan is naïve to believe that the Islamic State is a byproduct of the Syrian regime. The removal of Assad from power will not disarm the thousands of Jihadists fighting in Syrian territory. It will simply attract their attention to new areas and countries in the region.
In the midst of the battle between Turkey, Iran, and Russia – the conflict in Syria is likely to only get worse. Unfortunately, it is also likely to spread further into the region. – Samih Saeb