Vladimir Putin’s Calculated Choice

Russian forces have advanced towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and are positioned on the city’s outskirts. They’ve succeeded in destroying dozens of Ukrainian military sites, leaving hundreds of civilian casualties, including children. The supposed goal behind the Russian campaign is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and installing a pro-Moscow puppet regime that will be submissive to the Kremlin. According to Vladimir Putin’s worldview, the only way to change the political calculus in Eastern Europe is to use brute force, not diplomacy. This is ironic given the fact that many of Russia’s conflicts have taken place in neighboring territories that share not only a common culture with Russia but also extensive trade relations. Therefore, one would assume that soft power would also be a tool used by the Kremlin. The timing of Russia’s assault isn’t coincidental. Moscow has chosen the winter, when the European need for Russian gas is at its peak. Indeed, what we’ve seen is that France and Germany, the two largest beneficiaries of Russian gas, were those most reluctant to take action against Putin and his government. They changed their stance only when other EU states severed their ties with Moscow and hardened their position towards Russia. Furthermore, Putin’s timing is advantageous due to political reasons as well. The American democracy today suffers from both internal and external challenges, and the recent American withdrawal from Afghanistan has undermined America’s credibility in the world. It is highly unlikely that the Biden Administration will push for an active American intervention in Ukraine. Of course, none of these factors suggest that Putin will win this war. The Russian president’s fate will be determined to a great degree by his immediate next steps: Will he prolong the war and lead to more casualties? Will he stop at Ukraine or violate the sovereignty of other countries like Poland? Regardless of the outcome, it’s important to remember that Putin’s steps are a product of a clear and calculated strategy. The Russian president considered his options and chose a military campaign to achieve his goals. So far, despite the sanctions imposed on Moscow, many of Putin’s calculations seem to have been correct: NATO has not deployed ground troops to fight in Ukraine and Western support remains limited on the ground. Russia will emerge victorious if it succeeds in bringing about a quick ceasefire that would guarantee its cultural and political dominance over Ukraine for years to come. Anything else would be a failure for Moscow. –Amr Al-Shobaki (translated by Asaf Zilberfarb)