Al-Araby al-Jadid, London, December 13
As the battle for Mosul enters its 35th day, it is clear that Islamic State forces will not be able to maintain their hold over the city for much longer. It is only a matter of time until Iraq’s second largest city will be finally freed from ISIS. What remains much less certain is what will become of Mosul the day after. The offensive to free the city came two and half years after it was first captured by Islamist forces. This timeframe allowed the Islamic State to truly embed its forces within the city and recruit local civilians to its lines. To make things worse, the different groups fighting together to liberate the city – Kurdish forces, Iraqi military, Shiite militias, and other groups – are now beginning to demonstrate deep rifts among them, as the fall of the city becomes apparent. The Kurds, for instance, are already beginning to build fortifications in the area in order to set facts and establish their presence on the ground. Peshmerga forces are trying to draw the new borders of the region. The Popular Mobilization Units, associated with Iran and Hezbollah, have launched their own offensive to take over the city of Tal Afar, located some 60 kilometers away. And all forces, regardless of their affiliation, are setting their eyes on the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, still controlled by the Islamic State. In face of these growing rifts, it is unclear how united the city will remain once it is freed. Normally, the United States could intervene to ensure the successful liberation of the city. But with a new administration in Washington looming, it is still unclear what’s next in store for Iraq. – Eyaad al-Dalimi