Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, London, January 9
The recent events in Iraq and Iran will have far-reaching consequences in the region. The impact of Soleimani’s killing on Iran is severe: It constitutes a blow not only to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps but also to Tehran’s global prestige and leadership. Evil regimes like Iran are used to underestimating American power. But they severely miscalculate America’s threats, as was evident in the case of Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. The undeniable truth is that most regimes in the Middle East respect only force. Norms and morals might be an important part of international relations, but force speaks louder than words in the Middle East. American presidents had so far avoided using their military capabilities against Iran, but not anymore. Iran was wrong to treat President Trump in the same way it treated his predecessors. After Iran killed an American in Iraqi Kurdistan and managed to besiege the US Embassy in Baghdad, Washington taught it an important lesson. It is for this reason that the mullahs retaliated to Soleimani’s killing by targeting an empty American base: they were simply fearful of yet another American strike. Iranian leaders now understand that Trump is unlike his predecessors. He is determined and bold. He would not hesitate to bring down the Iranian regime. Forty years of Iranian military and industrial power could be destroyed by Trump in a matter of days. Tehran refused to learn from the painful lesson of its neighbors who tested American power only to pay a heavy price. Even a major superpower like China succumbed to US pressure and returned to the negotiation table after Trump threatened to revoke their trade deal. So did Mexico, Canada and a wide range of NATO countries. Iran is no different. After these painful strikes on the mullah regime, Iran will have no choice but to open the door for diplomatic negotiations. –Abd Al-Rahman Al-Rashed