The Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center is hosting its fifth annual conference, titled Navigating a Turbulent Future? What to Expect in 2022 on Wednesday, December 8, and Thursday, December 9, 2021. The conference will consist of eight virtual discussions that will provide a look ahead to 2022, focusing on what Carnegie scholars and other experts believe will be the most significant and challenging issues facing the Middle East and North Africa in their interaction with international actors. As in previous years the conference will bring together scholars from Carnegie centers around the world—Beirut, Brussels, Moscow, Beijing, New Delhi, and Washington— as well as external experts and analysts from around the world to discuss the current state of affairs and weigh in on what they perceive will be the main trends to follow in the year ahead.
The event will be held in English, live on YouTube @CarnegieMENA.
To watch the discussions live, please click on each item individually in the program below.
A Global Outlook: Issues That Matter [1]
MARIANO-FLORENTINO (TINO) CUÉLLAR, MARWAN MUASHER, MAHA YAHYADECEMBER 08, 2021 YOUTUBE @CARNEGIEMENA
Join us for the opening session on Wednesday, December 8, from 15:15 until 16:00 Beirut time (UTC+2), to learn more about our new president and the issues he intends to focus on.
After the Pandemic: Back to Normal or a New Abnormal? [2]
Wed, Dec 8, 2021 4:15 PM – 5:30 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [3].
This panel entitled “After the Pandemic: Back to Normal or a New Abnormal? [2]” aims to shed light on the pandemic’s long-term economic, political, and social consequences and policy options for growth and stability.
With millions of deaths across the globe amid lockdowns and an economic slowdown, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted human life in an unprecedented way. The ongoing impact of the pandemic threatens to further disrupt economies, trigger protests and civil strife, and exacerbate the already growing gap between rich and poor.
Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 16:15-17:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Jihad Azour [4], Rosa Balfour [5], Evan A. Feigenbaum [6] and Mosises Naím [7]chaired by Zainab Usman [8]. The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube [9] and Facebook [10].
The Middle East and the World in a Time of American Disengagement [11]
Wed, Dec 8, 2021 5:45 PM – 7:15 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [12].
While the United States retains significant stakes in the Middle East, the general direction of Washington’s dealings with the region in the past decade has been toward greater disengagement, particularly military disengagement. This has opened up spaces for a range of non-Arab regional and international actors to fill the vacuum, including Turkey, Iran, Israel, Russia and China.
This panel entitled “The Middle East and the World in a Time of American Disengagement” [11] will explore how each of these countries views its role in the region, its strategic ambitions, and how interactions among these regional and international actors—not to say with the United States—might affect regional stability.
Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 17:45-19:15 EET for a public panel discussion with Dalia Dassa Kaye [13], Marwan Muasher [14], Karim Sadjadpour [15], Dmitri Trenin [16], Sinan Ülgen [17] chaired by Michele Dunne [18].
The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube [19] and Facebook [20].
The Growing Threat of Nuclear Proliferation [21]
Wed, Dec 8, 2021 7:30 PM – 8:30 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [22].
In spite of nuclear nonproliferation efforts, including punitive measures, the global threat from the spread of nuclear weapons remains very real. Experts in the field continue to warn of the growing potential for nuclear conflicts across the world, while major global powers continue to add new types of nuclear weapons to their arsenals. In the Middle East, the risks of nuclear proliferation are increasing even as efforts continue around the JCPOA.
This panel “The Growing Threat of Nuclear Proliferation [21]” will examine the prospects for a successful nuclear nonproliferation effort under the Biden administration in the United States.
Join us on Wednesday, December 8 from 19:30-20:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Rose Gottemoeller [23], Mark Hibbs [24] and George Perkovich [25] chaired by Névine Schepers [26].
The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube [27] and Facebook [28].
Maritime Insecurity Around the Arabian Peninsula
Thu, Dec 9, 2021 3:00 PM – 4:15 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [29].
The Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea around the Arabian Peninsula are among the most congested maritime passageways in the world. They are especially important to China, which seeks to secure its energy resources and aspires to become a maritime power, as evident in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Most recently, these passages have seen a rise in military incidents tied to the rivalry between Iran on the one hand, and Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on the other.
The panel will touch upon the impact of regional rivalries and tensions on maritime security and examine possible solutions, including the prospect of establishing a new regional and international security framework for the region.
Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 15:00-16:15 EET for a public panel discussion with Abdullah Baaboud [30], Darshana Baruah [31], Rudra Chaudhuri [32]and Paul Haenle [33]chaired by Nilanthi Samaranayake [34].
The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube and Facebook.
Fireside Chat: A New Politics of Axes in the Middle East? [35]
Thu, Dec 9, 2021 4:30 PM – 5:15 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [36].
The Middle Eastern regional order that the United States dominated after the end of the Cold War is changing rapidly. New regional and international actors are filling the void, so that a number of contending alignments of states have emerged. This situation harks back to the Middle East of the 1960s and 1970s, when the volatile region was shaped by what was described as the “politics of axes”.
This fireside chat [35] will address the new alignments in the Middle East, where they are likely to lead, what they will mean for the region in the coming decade, and whether Arab states and their non-Arab neighbors can arrive at a diplomatic and security architecture that leads to greater stability.
Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 16:30-17:15 EET for a fireside chat with Ghassan Salame [37] and Maha Yahya [38].
The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube [40] and Facebook [41].
The Gulf States in Search of a Purpose as a Post-Hydrocarbons Era Nears
Thu, Dec 9, 2021 5:30 PM – 6:30 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [42].
The increasing foreign policy activism of certain Gulf states in the past decade—the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman most notably—has challenged traditional hierarchies in the region, in which Saudi Arabia was the main driver in regional and international affairs. Today, other countries are searching for new roles as a post-hydrocarbons era looms in the coming decades. Rival ambitions helped push the isolation of Qatar in 2017–2021, while Saudi-Emirati differences have characterized more recent developments. At the same time, Gulf Cooperation Council states have had an uneasy relationship with Iran, which they fear aims to expand its influence at their expense.
This panel titled “The Gulf States in Search of a Purpose as a Post-Hydrocarbons Era Near [43]s” will examine current trends in the Gulf and address how they might affect the broader Middle East in the coming years.
Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 17:30-18:30 EET for a public panel discussion with Yasmine Farouk [44], Jane Kinninmont [45] and Kristian Ulrichsen [46] chaired by Yezid Sayigh [47].
The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube [48]and Facebook [49].
Regional Rivalry in Lebanon [50]
Thu, Dec 9, 2021 7:00 PM – 8:00 PM Eastern European Time (UTC+2)
Register here [51].
As Lebanon’s financial and economic crisis worsens, state institutions are deteriorating. This has led outside powers to mediate in or seek to influence Lebanese affairs. Iran has considerable influence through its local ally Hezbollah. Since the August 4, 2020, explosion at Beirut Port, France has begun playing a more active role in Lebanon’s government-formation process. Russia and Qatar have also shown a stronger interest in the country’s crisis, even as Saudi Arabia remains disengaged from Lebanon.
This panel titled “Regional Rivalry in Lebanon [50]” will examine the respective agendas of these powers, and ask how the further fragmentation of the Lebanese state will impact their roles?
Join us on Thursday, December 9 from 19:00-20:00 EET for a public panel discussion with Kim Ghattas [52], Emile Hokayem [53], Ziad Majed [54] and Randa Slim [55] chaired by Hisham Melhem [56].
The discussion will be held in English and livestreamed on YouTube [57] and Facebook [58].