Holland’s popularity rises after Paris massacre as unprecedented numbers enlist
A wave of patriotism engulfing France following the attacks of November 13, is boosting the personal popularity of French President François Hollande, who until October was floundering, with approval ratings hovering at about 20 percent.
Hollande’s handling of the terror attacks and the resolve shown by the president and his prime minister, Manuel Valls, who together have spearheaded an initiative for an international alliance against the Islamic State (ISIS), is credited with boosting his approval ratings to about 33%, with his negatives, in contrast, going down by about ten points.
Hollande’s declaration of a three-month state of emergency and his rapid-fire meetings with US President Barack Obama and UK Prime Minister David Cameron have burnished a reputation that only recently seemed beyond repair.
France is holding regional elections in early December, and it remains to be seen if the president’s growing popularity can boost the fortunes of his party’s provincial candidates. The right-wing National Front, led by Marine Le Pen, may see its precipitous rise halted by the public’s general satisfaction with Hollande’s handling of the terror attacks, which stands at about 50%.
“The much harder question to answer is whether this will translate into popularity at the ballot box,” political scientist Pascal Perrineau told Reuters. “The deep springs of social and economic discontent are still there, this hasn’t erased them.”
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Hollande is not the only French leader whose popularity has improved since the attacks. Former president Nicolas Sarkozy, leading the center-right Les Républicains, is also enjoying a significant uptick among independent voters wary of Hollande’s Socialist Party’s economic policies but deterred by the overtly racist ultra-nationalism of the National front.
“Despite what many believed, it is not Marine Le Pen’s National Front that has capitalized on the impact of the attacks in the public opinion,” Alejo Schapire, a veteran political correspondent at Radio France International told The Media Line. “The National Front led the polls before the attacks and continues to lead. But what’s new is that François Hollande, who has always handled himself best as head of state during international crises, is seeing a quantum leap in his flagging popularity.”
Last weekend for the first time, a survey run by Harris Interactive indicated the Socialist Party could surpass Les Républicains in the first round of elections, with 26% of probable voters against 25%. In this survey, as in others, the National Front continues to lead with 27%, but all three parties are in a virtual dead heat.
The surge of patriotism is visible not only in the small French flags that have sprung up around the country, but also in an unprecedented surge of volunteers for service in the French Armed Forces.
“We saw a jump in recruits after Charlie Hebdo,” says military expert Jean-Paul Ney, “but after the attacks of November it has doubled, possibly trebled.”
Ney, the author of the recent book, Why do they do Jihad? An Inquiry into the Merah Generation, says, “Think of it as physics: its army against terrorism, a physical reaction to a physical explosion.”
“We don’t have only the Islamist generation in France, not only Islamonazis,” he said, in a conversation with The Media Line, “we have also kids for whom going to the Bataclan or going out with a pretty girl is viewed as an act of patriotism.”
“They feel patriotic. I met one young recruit who told me that for him, “France is liberty.”
“I am happy about this,” Ney continued, “because even though in France we have a lost generation, the 22-year-old who have screw off to join ISIS, the younger ones coming up are made of a different stuff. For them it’s not political, they seem themselves as fighters on the good side of the clash of civilizations.”
For others, of course, it is all politics, and the French people will soon make their voices heard. According to Schapire, Hollande and Sarkozy, not the French far right, are slated to gain the most. “Electorally, the attacks gave Hollande the stature he was lacking, so he and his party can now face an election that many assumed they’d already lost.”
“I think the Socialists will lose less than expected, and the National Front will gain the good results they already expected. The big question is: what will happen with Sarkozy’s party that until now was on the fence?”