Washington-Ankara tensions peak following Islamic State attack on American forces in Syria
Turkish authorities proclaimed that the deadly ISIS attack in Syria this week should not stop the U.S. from withdrawing from the country, but analysts note that Ankara has limited influence due to the American threat of economic repercussions.
Four Americans, including two U.S. service members, were among 19 people the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said were killed Wednesday in a blast in Manbij, Syria, a northern city near the Turkish border controlled by Kurds.
Washington’s cooperation with the Kurdish fighters is one of the biggest points of contention between the NATO allies, with Ankara considering the YPG an extension to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey, the U.S. and the European Union deem a terrorist organization.
The U.S. and Turkey launched joint patrols in northern Syria in November but the latter has since announced plans to launch an offensive against the Kurds.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently warned that his country would “devastate” Turkey economically if the Kurds are targeted, precipitating a 1.6 percent drop in the Turkish lira a day later.
Turkey’s response to Trump’s threat was relatively muted, with a presidential spokesman merely contending that, “terrorists can’t be your partners.” Officials thereafter revealed that Erdogan discussed the formation of a safe zone in Syria during a phone call with Trump, who then tweeted about the possibility of enhancing bilateral economic cooperation.
“I think it was clever on their part to de-emphasize the threat[s] and focus more on what they like,” Alan Makovsky, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress who previously dealt with Turkish affairs at the U.S. State Department, stressed to The Media Line.
One potential card in Washington’s hand is to levy a fine on the Turkish state-owned Halkbank, which has been implicated in an alleged scheme to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Iran, although Makovsky believes this would have minimal impact.
The Trump administration could also impose additional tariffs on Turkish exports similar to those implemented last summer during the course of a major disagreement over the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. Those measures caused the Turkish currency to plummet, scaring off foreign investors and leading to massive inflation in the country.
“I think the U.S. could hurt Turkey a lot,” Makovsky asserted, “as economic measures are Turkey’s achilles’ heel.”
Nicholas Danforth, a Senior Policy Analyst specializing on Turkey and the Middle East at the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center, agrees that Ankara’s economic fragility was exposed during last year’s crisis.
“Turkey is certainly eager to avoid an economically-damaging confrontation with Washington,” he told The Media Line. “Rather than react defiantly to Trump’s threat, Ankara opted to ignore it in hopes of negotiating U.S. support for an expanded Turkish military presence in northern Syria.”
Following the latest development, however, the U.S. position has become even more precarious. Whereas proponents of a U.S. pull-out from Syria point to the inherent dangers–as evidenced by Wednesday’s attack–of stationing troops in the country, opponents of the prospective move emphasize the threat ISIS still poses.
In this respect, while Republican Senator Lindsey Graham warned that a withdrawal could provide a boost to the U.S.’ enemy, Vice President Mike Pence concurrently reiterated that the drawdown would nevertheless proceed.
For his part, Erdogan does not believe the U.S. will change course in Syria “because I saw honorable Trump’s determination on this point [to withdraw],” the Reuters news agency reported.
Given that Turkish municipal elections are slated for March, Erdogan is liable to keep Syria and the proposed safe zone at the center of attention, according to Aykan Erdemir, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former parliamentarian with the main Turkish opposition party.
Erdogan will likely attempt to carry out a cross-border military operation that does not antagonize the U.S. in order to drum up nationalist support, he wrote in an email to The Media Line.
“The last thing the Turkish president would want at this point is an economic crisis triggered by a diplomatic spat with Washington.”