As the Assad regime prepares for major offensive, analysts warn that the anticipated chaos could draw competing powers further into the conflict
Reports surfaced overnight of an alleged Israeli air strike near the al-Mazzah Airport in Damascus, which followed news this weekend that the United States has drawn up a list of Syrian facilities that will be targeted should the Assad regime use chemical weapons during an anticipated major assault on Idlib Province. The last significant rebel-held stronghold, the northwestern territory is home to some 3 million Syrian civilians, a huge portion of whom sought refuge in the so-called “de-escalation” zone—as designated by a tripartite Russia-Iran-Turkey deal—after being displaced from other parts of the country. Similarly, tens of thousands of anti-regime fighters have been relocated to Idlib after surrendering elsewhere to Assad-aligned troops.
Over the past few years, the regime, backed by Russian air power and Iranian-supported Shiite mercenaries on the ground, has retaken from the rebels Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of the capital, and, most recently, Deraa Province—the origin of the 2011 uprising—along with the Golan Heights region bordering Israel. Notably, the last of these operations was conducted in another “de-escalation” zone, where fighting was supposed to be barred as a result of a U.S.-Russia-Jordan-brokered truce agreement.
While the prospective battle for Idlib is being described as the final act in the war, its recapture would not consolidate the regime’s control over all of Syria, the eastern section of which remains largely in the hands of the U.S.-backed, Kurdish YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (with Islamic State retaining small pockets of land near the southeast border with Iraq). Additionally, Turkey is liable at least in the short-term to maintain control over areas in the northern Syria near the shared border, whereas Iran continues to spearhead the fighting with some 80,000 foreign troops under the command of about 3,000 Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers. Lastly, Russia has been the major player in the arena since intervening in the conflict in 2015.
“Idlib’s fall would therefore mark the end of one chapter of the war—the Syrian-generated, Sunni Arab rebellion against Assad—and the beginning of a new one in which powers compete against each other for spheres of influence,” Dr. Jonathan Spyer, Director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis, explained to The Media Line.
Indeed, the United Nations’ Syria envoy last week described the situation in Idlib as “the perfect storm,” with fighting therein expected to cause not only a humanitarian crisis but also further entangle Washington, Ankara and even Jerusalem in the web of destruction.
A war-of-words already is being waged between the U.S. and Russia, with the former accusing the latter of violating an understanding to prevent the Syrian regime from advancing on Idlib. For its part, Moscow is building up its naval presence in the Mediterranean while raising false flags in the form of allegations that rebels are planning to use chemical weapons to counter the offensive. In response, the White House accused Russia of ascribing to the Syrian opposition Assad’s own intention.
“If the regime uses chemical weapons again there would be a one-off, as the maximum we will see from the Americans is likely what happened after [sarin gas] was used in Khan Sheikhoun [in April 2017],” Dr. Spyer asserted. “This would not be intended to substantially alter the Idlib battle, but rather to uphold the international convention against the use of chemical arms.”
The U.S. responded to the Khan Sheikhoun attack in Idlib—which killed scores of people and wounded 300 others—by launching dozens of cruise missiles at Shayrat airbase in Homs, from which the chemical assault was launched. Earlier this year, Washington, together with France and Great Britain, carried out dozens of coordinated air strikes against Syrian sites following the regime’s suspected use of non-conventional weapons in Douma.
For Turkey, the stakes are higher given its backing of a huge rebel force in Idlib, a strategy geared towards suppressing Kurdish autonomy and preventing another influx of refugees. “Turkey already hosts 3.5 million Syrians and does not want another big flow,” Dr. Gallia Lindenstrauss, Research Fellow at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, stressed to The Media Line. “Ankara also does not want any of the [up to 30,000] Al Qa’ida-linked fighters [of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham] to flee into its territory and pose a security threat. Finally, Turkey was one of the most vocal opponents of Assad, and if Idlib comes under his control it would essentially mark victory for the regime. This would damage Ankara’s reputation.”
The Turkish government is thus lobbying Moscow to limit the scope of the Syrian offensive, which would allow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to “save face” while reducing the resistance encountered by Damascus and its Iranian allies. In this respect, there are unconfirmed reports of a tentative deal under which Ankara would preserve control over certain areas in Idlib in exchange for the non-participation in the battle of various rebel elements of the Turkish-directed, 70,000-strong “National Army.”
Erdogan is scheduled later this week to travel to Tehran, where he will meet his counterparts Hasan Rouhani and Vladimir Putin.
“I think it will still be very hard to prevent a bloodbath,” Dr. Lindenstrauss concluded. “Turkey, Russia and Iran want to reach an accord, but because so many rebels from other areas were pushed into Idlib, it has become a very hardcore stronghold.”
Regarding Israel, the offensive will not alter its fundamental calculus, with Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman reiterating Thursday that the military will continue to act in Syria as necessary. As a corollary, the defense chief made clear that Jerusalem will not abide by foreign diktats that may come about through future negotiations.
“We see different gatherings in a variety of places—in Ankara, in Tehran, in Geneva—talking about redesigning Syria after Idlib,” Liberman noted, adding that, “The only thing that concerns us is the security interests of the State of Israel.”
As such, the Jewish state undoubtedly will be watching carefully as the battle for Idlib kicks off, as chaos in Syria perpetually has been used as a smokescreen by the Islamic Republic to advance its goal of establishing a permanent presence in the country.
Given the prevailing interplay, including the latest alleged Israeli strike in Damascus, it may be that mysterious explosions at suspicious facilities will soon be lighting up the northern night skies of Syria.