As Syrian leader grows weaker, his opponents are flexing their muscles
The tense peace Lebanon has managed to preserve, even as civil war in neighboring Syria has weakened Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s allies, may be in jeopardy as the country’s sectarian factions jockey for power.
The quiet was broken last week by three days of fighting between Al-Assad supporters and opponents in the northern city of Tripoli, leaving 11 people dead, following the arrest of Sunni Islamist Shadi Al-Mawlawi by the General Security Directorate (GSD). On Sunday, violence flared up again, this time in Beirut, causing two deaths, after Lebanese troops killed two members of an anti-Assad political party.
On Monday, The Lebanese Army and the Internal Security Forces were on patrol in armored vehicles at the scene of the clashes in Beirut’s Tariq Al-Jadideh neighborhood, the local Daily Star newspaper reported. A military prosecutor ordered that 22 soldiers, including three officers, be held for interrogation over the Sunday killings.
Lebanon has defied the fears of many observers by staying aloof of the 15-month conflict in Syria even as refugees flee over the border into Lebanon and arms delivered by smugglers make their way back to rebels in Syria. The two countries share many of the same sectarian rivalries and Lebanon’s fractious politics is divided along pro- and anti-Al-Assad camps.
The seeming quiet may be coming to an end, however, as Al-Assad’s position looks increasingly precarious, loosening the grip his allies have enjoyed over Lebanon for the past four years, analysts said.
“It’s been a deceptive quiet. There are glowing embers under these ashes,” Heiko Wimmen, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told The Media Line. “Now, it looks like the balance of power might be shifting … If the Syrian regime were to fall, then the balance will shift, so things in Lebanon are heating up again.”
At home, Al-Assad has counted on the backing of Syria’s minority communities, including his own Alawite tribe, as well as Shiites and Christians, against a rebellion largely led by the country’s Sunni majority. In Lebanon, these same communities have staked out similar positions as their peers in Syria, including internal divisions inside the Sunni community between the more Al-Assad-friendly business establishment and the poor.
Sunday’s clashes in Beirut were, in fact, between Sunnis, pointing to these internecine divisions.
The fighting in Syria has also created rifts inside the Lebanese government, with the Shiite parties, Hizbullah and Amal, backing Al-Assad, while Sunni Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt try to stay neutral or provide some lukewarm support to rebels, according to Benedetta Berti, a research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.
Even the Lebanese army and GSD, two professional bodies supposedly above politics, are assumed by Sunni leaders to have taken sides, with the Al-Assad camp. It was their roles in arresting Al-Mawlawi and in killing Sheikh Ahmed Abdul Wahid and Muhammad Hussein Miraib, both members of the Sunni March 14 political alliance that set off the two rounds of violence in this month.
However, except for isolated incidents, they have limited their fighting to wars of words and quiet assistance to rebel forces. At the end of April, Lebanese authorities intercepted a ship on its way to Lebanon’s northern city of Tripoli with weapons they said were probably being delivering to Syrian rebels, security sources said on Saturday. Tripoli is a major Sunni center.
Smuggling arms and welcoming refugees could serve as a flashpoint for further violence, said Wimen.
“If there is going to be Ho Chin Min Trail in Syria, one of them is going to run through northern Lebanon,” he said, referring to the supply route used by the Viet Cong to bring arms into south during the Vietnam War. “It’s a very sensitive area, and it’s a Sunni area … But then again those Sunni areas are hemmed in by heavily Shiite-populated areas.”
The reason the Lebanese have maintained an uneasy quiet goes back to 2008 when the Shiite Lebanese movement Hizbullah, a Damascus ally, fought pitched battles with heavily outgunned Sunni militias, delivering them a stinging defeat that ensured the dominance of the pro-Syria forces in Lebanon. But with their patron in Damascus fighting for his own life, the anti Al-Assad camp in Lebanon is getting back its fighting spirit.
More than 9,000 people have been killed by Syrian troops, the United Nations says. The Syrian government says 2,600 police and security members have been killed by armed groups. On Sunday, army shelling and gunfire killed 34 people, in the town of Souran in the central province of Hama, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
An Al-Assad who is neutered for a prolonged period or toppled outright would lead to an upheaval in Lebanese politics because of Syria’s outsized role in the country’s politics and economy. Until 2005, Syrian troops were stationed inside Lebanon and Damascus is assumed to play a major role today through, among other things, its close relations with Hizbullah.
“If the Syrian regime were to collapse, this would have a more dramatic effect on Lebanon, likely giving new power and credibility to the political forces behind the March 14 coalition,” Berti said in a research note she published on Sunday. “In parallel, Hizbullah would be affected and would probably lose political capital, power, and popularity.”
Rising tensions could also dent Lebanon’s fragile economy. In March, the international bond rating agency Fitch warned that the high level of political instability, both domestically and in Syria, was acting as a “major constraint” on Lebanon’s rating, which is now a B, five levels below investment grade.
“Should events in Syria lead to increased sectarian strife or a collapse in government, the resulting uncertainty would be another negative for the business environment,” Fitch stated.
Last week after violence erupted in Tripoli, the Gulf states of Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – all major sources of tourism for Lebanon — all advised their citizens to avoid visiting the country.