“Syria maintains a sizeable presence of military and intelligence officials in Lebanon, in contravention of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559. Yesterday’s bombing calls into question the stated reason behind this presence of Syrian security forces: Lebanon’s internal security. The Lebanese people must be free to express their political preferences and choose their own representatives, without intimidation and the threat of violence.”
It was with these words that the United States announced it was recalling its Ambassador to Damascus, Syria, Margaret Scobey. The move came a day after the Feb. 14 assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafiq Al-Hariri. Since then, President Bashar Al-Asad has been under siege in his Damascus palace.
The international community is calling on Syria to end its support for terrorism. Capitals around the world say Syria is sponsoring organizations that carry out attacks against civilians. They add that several such groups have their headquarters in Damascus. Even more forceful are the voices urging Syria to end its sojourn in Lebanon. That call goes all the way up to the United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
Now Israel has added to the verbal lashing by blaming Syria for either direct or indirect involvement in the Feb. 25 suicide bombing in Tel Aviv.
As the Syria story continues to unfold, Damascus has announced it has captured Saddam Hussein’s half-brother and duly handed him over to the Iraqi authorities. Cynics in Washington maintain that move was simply aimed at placating the prevailing anti-Syrian voices. They say, “Why did Syria make that gesture right now?” and “How come Damascus has always denied any senior figures in the former Iraqi regime were in Syria?”
Others, perhaps the more forgiving on Capitol Hill, say the reason is unimportant. They argue that any move in the right direction from Damascus must be embraced.
But for all that Syria is being lambasted in the West and even boycotted and censured in some cases, the country is not as diplomatically isolated as one may think.
The country has ambassador-status relations with more than 60 nations, and was even recently the ranking member of the United Nations Security Council.
Economically speaking, the country is not in the best shape in 2005, with population expansion exceeding economic growth. However, during the first years of this decade gross domestic product was rising at some four percent.
But it is on the military front that Syria seems to be good at making friends. Its on-off relationship with Moscow is now quite definitely on the up. Reports suggest an arms deal is still under consideration, despite international pressure on Russia’s Vladimir Putin to abort the arrangement. However, repeated messages from Moscow, including one delivered from the steps of the U.S. State Department, make it very clear Russia does not wish to take instructions from Washington, or anywhere else.
All of this together means Syria can survive despite the possibility of far-reaching international sanctions, but it will not be easy. As a result, expect to see in the coming weeks further words of defiance from Damascus alongside gestures similar to the handover of Saddam’s brother, as Syria prepares to adopt a seemingly duplicitous policy of retreat coupled with muscle flexing.