World leaders are gathering in Turkey this week for a NATO summit. The topics under discussion include Iraq after the handover of power and the Arab-Israeli conflict. But perhaps neither of those is as crucial to the stability of the globe as is the very future of the NATO-summit host country Turkey.
When Mu’stafa Kemal Ataturk founded the first modern, secular Turkish state he was, perhaps unwittingly, creating a recipe for disaster.
As a result of his presidency and reformist approach most Muslim women in Turkey do not cover their heads, there is no Caliphate, Turks write with Latin characters and the Gregorian calendar is the norm.
The country is striving for Western recognition (with a small r), for acceptance as a modern state. Yet at the same time it is constantly looking over its shoulder to see what is expected of it as a state of Muslims.
Turkey is physically a bridge. It lies predominantly on the European land mass but also crosses into Asia.
On the very real front that presents major issues. Earthquakes are never far away, as Tectonic plates shift beneath the country.
But it is the political tremors that are the subject of this column.
It seems increasingly the case that it is impossible in 2004 to be part of the West and the Orient at the same time. The push and pull is somewhat akin to the effect of polarity in a magnetic field – you have to move in one direction or another.
Turkey is trying to curry favor with two opposing camps. With the West it presents itself as the largest market if and when it is accepted as a member of the European Union. It presents itself as a tourist trap like any Western destination. It plays a full role in NATO, including regular military exercises with the United States.
Yet, at the same time, it is seeking a larger role in the Arab League, seemingly purposely jeopardizing its good relationship with Israel and working on arms deals with Arab countries and refusing to send troops into Iraq.
The rewards?
So far Turkey’s gain from its maximized policy is less than minimal, in fact it is downright negative.
The West is becoming increasingly wary about incorporating Turkey into its inner circle. The courting of Arab capitals by Ankara is clearly cause for concern.
Worse still is the reward from the Muslim world for this duplicity.
Some 27,000 police officers are in Istanbul this week, charged with protecting the NATO leaders. For more than a year now, Turkey has been rocked by terror attacks, not just from its oppressed Kurdish minority. Organizations claiming links to Al-Qa’ida have killed dozens of people in a bid to destabilize Turkey as it looks to the West.
It is no coincidence that a terror group in Iraq is currently holding three Turkish truck drivers, and threatening to execute them.
Pretty soon Turkey will have to decide, either it sits in one camp or another. This constant hovering and seeking support from both sides of the continental divide, may be a price to be paid for geographical location (which was once the secret of Ottoman power), but in such a volatile world it is not only threatening Turkey’s political stability, but that of many other countries like those nearby: the Balkans, Syria, Iraq, Israel and Cyprus; and others far away.