An emerging undercurrent of opinion in both the Arab and American media is that the primary interests that lie at the end of the “Road Map” may be electoral and economic while peace is the secondary destination. Some suggest that the sides are buying time more than peace.
On May 26th, the Saudi-backed Al Hayyat newspaper, published in London, ran an editorial by Ghassan Charbel called “Sharon’s Scam.” In it, Charbel refers to Sharon as “the most ferocious general in the history of the Jewish state…. The general who assassinates the chance for peace every single day…killer general.” Yet, he concludes that Sharon is making a calculated bet, having agreed to the “Road Map” in the belief that newly-appointed Prime Minister Mahmoud ‘Abbas is not able to rein in Palestinian terror. Accordingly, Israel is able to reap the benefits of its failure. In another editorial in the same newspaper, Edward Said argued that the Road Map is yet another stage in the subjugation of the Arab and Palestinian peoples.
The Palestinian press voiced similar sentiments. The daily Al-Hayyat Al-Jadida bemoaned the lack of clauses guaranteeing the right of return for Palestinian refugees and Al-Ayyam cast aspersions at the significance of the Israeli cabinet’s support of the plan. It even ran an editorial entitled, “The Israeli government’s acceptance of the Road Map is a wasted beginning.” Interestingly however, both of the main Palestinian dailies devoted considerable space to analyzing post-war Iraq and Arafat’s commitments never to desert the Palestinian people and leave his homeland. Neither the “Road Map” nor Israel’s historic decision to commit to a Palestinian state, dominated the newspapers.
The newly appointed Palestinian Prime Minister cannot afford to reject the idea of the “Road Map.” American backing is vital to his remaining in his post because he enjoys only limited popularity on the Palestinian street and even less power relative to that of PA Chairman Yassir Arafat. Arafat has been exploiting ‘Abbas’s association with the “Road Map,” stressing it in order to underscore his own commitment to the Palestinian people by contrast. Arafat’s support has been soaring as he pounds away at this theme. For this reason, Arafat stands to gain handsomely for keeping his distance from the latest diplomatic developments whose chance of success is, in any case, considered to be slight.
Indeed, Sharon himself, according to the Israeli press, has argued that Israel cannot afford to reject the plan because of the current difficult economic situation. The Prime Minister told his cabinet before it voted that, “there is a direct link between the diplomatic and economic issues; the more progress we make in the peace process, the more our economic situation will improve.” Among those ministers who took his admonition seriously is Sharon’s close confidant, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, who said that he voted for the “Road Map” as part of a “range of understandings with the United States” even though he opposed the agreement itself.
Meanwhile, American media suggest that President Bush’s fervor over the peace plan is in some way a payback to British Prime Minister Tony Blair for his support in pursuing the war against Iraq. According to some analysts, Blair has been pushing the idea of the “Road Map” as a means of showing that he is genuinely interested in improving the situation in the Arab world and does not have colonial interests. President Bush also needs to show that the immense resources his administration is investing in the Middle East will pay off. Critics are already suggesting that his Middle East policy is strongly tempered by the interests of the pro-Israel electorate whose support he needs for re-election. They suggest that he needs movement in the peace process in order to justify that investment and to extend his image of international leadership through the election.
Ironically, all sides at this stage — Palestinian, Israeli and American — have a vested interest in staying involved and prolonging the peace process. The fact that both the Palestinians and the Israelis have major qualms over large sections of the “Road Map” may, at least at this stage, be a secondary consideration.
*******
S.L. Lorman is a Jerusalem-based Middle East analyst.