As Taliban gains in strength, renewed focus on Moscow’s role in supporting the U.S.’ main enemy in Afghanistan
ISLAMABAD—Former Cold War-era foes Russia and the Taliban reportedly struck a covert arms deal that is raising alarm bells in the U.S. and among its coalition allies, which together have waged war against extremist forces in Afghanistan since 2001.
While it is difficult to imagine Moscow forging an alliance with the Afghan Taliban, given the Soviet Union’s humiliating retreat from Afghanistan after its failed 1980s military campaign, the two sides seemingly have found common ground; that is, a shared desire to both prevent the Islamic State from gaining a stronghold in Afghanistan and to curb American influence in the region.
“We had a common enemy. We needed support to get rid of the United States and its allies in Afghanistan, and Russia wanted all foreign troops to leave as quickly as possible,” a senior Taliban official was quoted as saying after news of the purported agreement surfaced.
His comments were followed by an interview with Gen. John W. Nicholson Jr. in which the top American commander in Afghanistan seemingly confirmed the existence of the pact. “We’ve had weapons brought to this headquarters and given to us by Afghan leaders and [they] said this was given by the Russians to the Taliban. Clearly, they are acting to undermine our interests,” he asserted.
Whereas the Russian Embassy in Kabul dismissed Nicholson’s comments as “idle gossip,” the Trump administration is believed to be devising a strategy to counter Moscow’s support for Washington’s main nemesis in Afghanistan.
The Kremlin’s attitude towards the Taliban did not change overnight; rather, a series of secret meetings held over many years paved the way for the two sides to look past the past and towards the future.
The rapprochement began in 2007, when the Taliban reached out to Russia for the first time with a view to securing light weaponry, presumably to use against U.S.-led forces stationed in Afghanistan. That created a back-channel for clandestine negotiations which culminated in an alleged meeting in September 2015 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour.
While little is known about the encounter, a senior Taliban commander in Afghanistan’s Helmand region revealed the group was promised Russian arms and financial support in order to fight ISIS in Afghanistan.
When contacted by The Media Line, a Russian Foreign Ministry official stated that “no such meeting [between Putin and Mansour] had taken place ever,” and that the “claims of the Taliban commander are just rubbish.”
Yet the reality on the ground suggests the Taliban is, in fact, getting help from somewhere. Despite facing off for some 17 years against the world’s most powerful military, the Taliban today is gaining in strength and has increased its control over large swaths of territory throughout Afghanistan.
According to NATO figures, the percentage of the Afghan population living in government-administered areas fell from 70 percent in September 2016 to 60% one year later. Moreover, a BBC analysis published in January found that the Taliban currently is operating in 70% of Afghanistan, a much larger sphere of influence than when most foreign troops withdrew from the country in 2014.
Irrespective of statistics, though, the proof appears to be in the bloodshed, as the Taliban remains a fierce opponent with the capacity to strike anywhere in Afghanistan including the capital Kabul, where a recent series of deadly terror attacks tells the tale.
“Perhaps Russian money and weapons are working wonders for the Taliban,” Abdullah Khalil Zai, an Afghanistan-based security and defense expert told The Media Line.
While Russia continues to deny supporting the Taliban, Afghan and American officials are increasingly worried that such a relationship could further complicate an already precarious situation.
“No doubt the Taliban is bouncing back in Afghanistan and it is well understood that this is due to the ‘invisible’ Russian hand,” a diplomat based in Islamabad contended to The Media Line. “Soon, they will have to repent.”