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How will the Mumbai Attacks Affect U.S.-Pakistan Relations?

[Analysis] The Mumbai attacks have increased the tension between Pakistan and India, two south-Asian neighbors in possession of nuclear weapons. While the eyes of the world focus on the Indian-Pakistani border, fearing a fourth, devastating war between the two, The Media Line’s analysts suggest the recent attacks could also bring about harsh consequences for Pakistan’s relations with the United States.
 
Only hours into the Mumbai attacks, top Indian officials were already pointing the finger of blame at Pakistan. The events that spread over 60 hours and were being dubbed "India’s 9/11," immediately brought to an end the Indian-Pakistani reconciliation talks.
 
Quoting statements emanating from New Delhi, Pakistani security officials called the situation "crisis-like" and warned Pakistan would pull out its troops from the country’s north-west in case India deployed its soldiers on their joint border.
 
Pakistan today deploys about 90,000 troops on its border with Afghanistan. These troops are engaged in daily battles against the Taliban and Al-Qa’ida, who find refuge in the mountainous tribal areas.
 
Nevertheless, both the United States and Afghanistan have repeatedly complained that Pakistan is not doing enough to curb terrorism emanating from its territories. The U.S. army has for that reason launched several air and land operations from Afghanistan into Pakistan, creating tensions between Islamabad and Washington.
 
India is now saying it has proof that most – if not all – the terrorists involved in the attacks came from Pakistan. If India’s allegation proves to be correct, it will further increase American pressure on Pakistan to boost its efforts to fight the terrorists inside its borders.
 
The fact that six American citizens were among those killed in Mumbai is also not helping to stabilize American-Pakistani relations.
 
Last month, the Spanish Cadena Ser radio station revealed a three-year-old Spanish military intelligence report, according to which Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) provided explosives and possibly training to the Taliban. The Spanish report added that the ISI might have also trained Taliban operatives in camps inside Pakistan.
 
Accusations that the ISI is aiding Islamist movements, including the Taliban, are not new. In an earlier interview conducted with Dr. Ajai Sahni, editor of the Indian-based South Asia Intelligence Review (SAIR), Sahni told The Media Line the Taliban and other movements, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harakat-ul-Mujahidin and Jeish-e-Muhammad, were all instruments in the hands of the ISI.
 
Initial interrogation of the only terrorist who survived the Mumbai attacks allegedly revealed that Lashkar-e-Taiba was behind the attacks.
 
The FBI has already sent a team to India to help investigate the attacks. A Pakistani involvement would no doubt jeopardize America’s relations with Pakistan, who since 2001 has pledged to help the U.S. in its war on terror.