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Losing the War: Iranian Reformists

The political crisis in Iran is building up as parliamentary elections get closer. Several ministers and assistants to President Muhammad Khatami have resigned, Muhammad Abtahi, a deputy to the president said on Wednesday. When asked by journalists whether Khatami himself will resign, Abtahi answered, “We might all go together.”

The crisis started about two weeks ago when the Iranian Council of Guardians decided to disqualify 45 percent of the 8,157 potential candidates for the parliamentary elections, reported the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram. The 12-man council is probably the most powerful institute in Iran. Not only does it have the veto right to disqualify potential candidates from running for elections, it also has to approve every legislative proposal passed by the parliament, wrote Dariush Bazargan in 1997 in the Middle East Review of International Affairs.

The Council of Guardians also controls the most powerful bodies in Iran, including the two paramilitary militias Basij and The Revolutionary Guards; the courts system; and the state-run media, says Professor Barry Rubin from the GLORIA research institute in Herzliya, Israel. They also control many charity organizations, which provide them with financial power, added Rubin.

Eighty reformist members of the current parliament were also included on the council’s list of those who cannot participate in the elections on February 20. This is a major blow to the reformists, and if things remain as they are, they can expect defeat on election day.

President Khatami, who is now participating in the Davos conference, said on Wednesday that despite rumors he might resign, he intends to complete his term in office serving his people.

Everything now depends on the Council of Guardians, which has until February 12 to review its decision. Spiritual leader ‘Ali Khamanai, who was initially reluctant to intervene, advised the council to thoroughly re-examine its decision, but even his call does not seem to have had any effect.

This is not the first time that such a decision has been made by the Council of Guardians. It has flexed its muscles several times in the past. The difference is in the quantity of potential candidates disqualified this time. After four very successful campaigns for parliamentary and city elections over the past four years, the reformists it seems, will not get the chance to win again, said Professor Rubin.

It should be noted, however, that no matter how popular President Khatami and the moderates are, no real reforms have been made in Iran since their rise to power. The power struggle between the reformists and the hard-liners headed by the Council of Guardians is clearly being won by the latter.