The registration of voters for the next Palestinian elections is over. According to the elections committee, around 50 percent of the eligible voters have registered. So now there is only the simple task of holding the elections. Or is it so simple? No date has been decided upon for Election Day, and according to Palestinian political experts, a date for elections is not going to be announced anytime soon.
So what is going on in the Palestinian political arena?
First of all, one has to remember that the last – and only – elections conducted to date, were held in 1996, about four years after the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (P.A.). The second elections were supposed to be held four years later, in the year 2000, but the Palestinian uprising – or intifada – caused their postponement, according to P.A. officials.
Since then, there’s been no sign of any let-up in the intensity of the uprising, and no elections have been held. P.A. members, elected almost a decade ago, are still in power, and allegations of corruption and poor performance on their part are increasing. A poll conducted in late September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) proved the Palestinians’ disappointment in their leaders: 93% supported the calls for fundamental reform in the P.A., and the percentage of those believing corruption exists in the P.A. stood at 88%.
As mentioned before, the P.A. has not issued a date for elections, and is probably not going to do so in the foreseeable future. The reason for this is simple – they just don’t want to. “The international community demanded that the Palestinians hold elections,” said Director of American Studies at the Palestinian Al-Quds University, Professor Muhammad Dajani. “The P.A. did not want to refuse, so it established an elections committee to register voters. But it has no intention of actually conducting the elections in the near future,” Dajani added.
The P.A.’s formal justification for this is the security and political chaos inflicted on them by Israel. No elections can be held, they say, during such a period. But there are also other reasons. Although the Hamas terror organization is not running in the national elections, it is expected to run in the municipal elections. The recent PCPSR poll indicates that in the Gaza Strip, where 1.5 million Palestinians reside, 30% support Hamas, and only 18% support P.A. Chairman Yassir Arafat’s ruling party, Fatah. In the West Bank, where 2.3 million Palestinians live, the numbers were closer: 22% for Fatah, 21% for Hamas.
To the P.A., controlled by Fatah, these numbers are alarming. In the 1996 elections the P.A. did not hold municipal elections for exactly that reason. Heads of local authorities were appointed directly by Arafat’s office. Today, the P.A. knows it has to deliver the whole package, including municipal elections, because of international, as well as internal, pressures. So for the time being it has decided to postpone the process, maybe until the figures look less disturbing.
The Palestinian people are aware of this. Only 56% believe, according to the aforementioned poll, that the P.A. is serious about holding national elections in the near future.
Arafat’s status is also deteriorating, which is yet another reason why elections are being delayed. Only 35% of Palestinians said they would vote for him, while 13% said they would vote for another member of the Fatah party – Marwan Barghouthi – who’s imprisoned in Israel for his involvement in terror. Fifteen percent said they would vote for one of Hamas’s leaders, Mahmoud A-Zahhar, even though until now Hamas has not been willing to participate in the elections for chairmanship or the parliament. Experts say, however, that as long as Arafat is alive, no other leader will be accepted as legitimate for the Palestinians.
And as for the committee that is supervising the elections process, the Palestinian public are also worried it will not provide an organized election process. Less than 60% said they have confidence in the Central Elections Commission. For its part, Baha Bakri, chairman of the committee, told The Media Line he is confident that the electoral process will be transparent and effective. Six-and-a-half-thousand observers and “party agents” will be making sure that nothing “will be conducted behind closed doors.”