Only three weeks ago, all the pollsters were predicting that the Israeli elections were predictable; the Likud (the party of the incumbent Prime Minister Ariel Sharon) was going to sweep the Knesset. The question was who would be invited to join them to form a coalition government?
Following a huge corruption probe into the Likud party, including Ariel Sharon’s two sons, the country’s top pollsters believe that Likud support is hemorrhaging. The latest poll published in the daily Haaretz carried out on its behalf by the company Dialogue, is predicting only 27 seats for the Likud in the 120-member Israeli Parliament. This is an advantage of only three seats over the Labor party.
Despite the trend, The Media Line’s Jerusalem Bureau Chief David Zev Harris maintains the result may not be as close as the polls are currently predicting. “Israelis have incredibly short memories,” said Harris. “A terror attack, or some other factor, could well boost support for Sharon’s Likud, once
again. Sharon is seen as being strong on fighting terrorism, notwithstanding his apparent inability to stem the violence in recent weeks.”
Indeed, a senior Palestinian minister, Yasser Abd Rabbo warned after the suicide bombing on Sunday that the bombings only play into the hands of the Likud and Sharon. For this reason, he condemned the bombing. Ironically, extreme Palestinian groups are not necessarily opposed to Sharon. The reasoning is counter-intuitive, but rests on the fact that they oppose any negotiated agreement. The Israeli Labor party, Sharon’s main rival party, will push for an agreement with Arafat which would weaken the position of the extreme groups and will strengthen Arafat.
What is of interest is that the group that carried out the double suicide bombing in Tel Aviv last Sunday is affiliated with Arafat. This raised suspicion that Arafat is losing control of some of the factions ostensibly under his control.