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Palestinians had their say, but what now?

(TML Photos)

If the Hamas organization, as forecasts suggest, emerges as the powerful force in the future Palestinian government, this will change the Middle East as we know it.

This will not only affect the Palestinians and the Israelis, who have been involved in grueling peace negotiations since the early 1990s.

If Hamas, an Islamic organization which does not recognize the state of Israel, dominates the Palestinian leadership following the legislative elections, this will also have an enormous impact on foreign parties which have played an instrumental role in pushing forward a currently stagnant peace process.

Throughout the election campaign, the United States was insistent it will not have dealings with Hamas, which it lists as a terror organization, if Hamas enters the government.

“We’re pleased that we have seen peaceful elections take place in the Palestinian areas,” said Stuart Tuttle, spokesman of the American Embassy in Tel Aviv, “but our position regarding talking and negotiating with Hamas remains the same. Hamas is a terrorist organization, and as a matter of policy we will not be dealing with them, whether they are members of the legislative council or members of the government.”

Tuttle said this will not happen until Hamas renounces its desire to destroy the state of Israel and rejects violence as a tool to further its cause.

But even in a situation in which Hamas does change its spots, a change in U.S. policy will not come easily.

U.S. President George W. Bush hosting Palestinian leader Mahmoud ‘Abbas at the White House. (Paul Morse/White House)

The U.S. will only reverse its policy if its decision-makers talk themselves into pretending that the threat is not as horrific as it seems, said Yossi Klein Halevi, the Jerusalem correspondent for The New Republic and a senior fellow at the Shalem Center. He called this mode of thinking “totally delusional.”

Whither the Peace Process?

“There is no peace process,” Klein Halevi said. “These elections did not kill the peace process. It was murdered five years ago by Arafat’s terrorist war.”

There is basically nothing the U.S. can do to get the peace process back on track with Hamas at the helm, Klein Halevi believes. Previously, there was a pretend peace partner in the form of Fatah, he said. “Now we’ll have the actual terrorists themselves ruling the government. In that sense we have a moment of clarity.”

Another party involved in mediation efforts was the European Union, which together with the U.N., Russia and the United States, constituted the Quartet which initiated the Road Map for Peace.

Although the EU is generally regarded as espousing a less rigid attitude toward Hamas than the U.S., a senior diplomat maintained the EU is concerned about Hamas taking over the Palestinian Authority (P.A.).

“Similar to America, we consider Hamas a terror organization,” said Kurt Hengl, Austria’s ambassador to Israel.

Austria currently holds the presidency of the European Union.

If Hamas forms a government or a coalition with Fatah, currently the ruling party, “then we’ll have a problem,” Hengl said. “We’ll certainly not be able to deal with a government which consists of members of a terrorist organization.”

Hamas founder Ahmad Yasin featured in much of the movement’s election literature. (TML Photos)

“If Hamas in the future renounces violence, changes its charter and offers negotiations with Israel…then certainly the EU, and I suppose also America, will become more flexible,” Hengl said. The EU is still awaiting “signals of flexibility” from the Palestinians, he said.

Asked for a timeframe for Hamas to show signs of moderation, Hengl said this will have to happen in the run-up to Israel’s general elections, slated for March 28.

“Even the Israeli politicians say ‘we don’t expect Hamas to change its charter tomorrow,’” Hengl said. But he added that if by the Israeli elections Hamas shows no signs that it is curbing terror attacks, stopping the open display of arms, and seriously trying to put order in the P.A., this will constitute a “dead end.”

Hengl downplayed the ability of Europe or the United States to push forward the peace process. “We are not the main players in the peace process,” he said. “The peace process will be stuck as long as the [Israelis and the Palestinians] don’t talk to each other.”

Professor Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, a lecturer from the Hebrew University’s Department of International Relations and head of the Swiss Center for Conflict Research, Management and Resolution, agreed that unilateral moves, such as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to withdraw troops and civilians from Gaza last August, will become a more viable option, if Hamas comes to power.

“To some extent, not much has changed,” said Bar-Siman-Tov, “because the point of departure that Israel has no Palestinian partner will just be given more credence.”

Echoing the opinions of Klein Halevi, Bar-Siman-Tov said that if, previously, people thought there was a chance of finding a partner on the Palestinian side, this option no longer exists.

Even if Hamas demonstrates a change in its outlook and shows hints of moderation, he said a change in Israel’s policy in this respect is possible, but will be difficult.

Unlike the U.S., such a change in policy will not involve legislation, “but the demands are very high,” he said. “Similar measures were taken with the PLO in 1993. That model could repeat itself but it will be much harder to implement.”

Israel once had a law that prohibited Israelis from talking with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), but this law was changed before the Oslo Accords were signed in the early 1990s.

From this point onwards, any change will have to come from Hamas, Bar-Siman-Tov said. “It’s up to Hamas to prove itself,” he said.

One possibility mentioned after the elections proposed that Hamas, an organization with no substantial administrative experience, would seek a neutral politician, who is neither from Fatah nor from Hamas, to head a new Hamas-dominated cabinet.

“It won’t work,” Bar-Siman-Tov said. “It might work outside, but Israel won’t accept this.”

Hengl agreed that this would not be a reasonable solution. “We are expecting that Hamas, if they want to run Palestine, have to change their form and their understanding of democracy.” Hengl explained that Hamas cannot be a revolutionary organization, while at the same time being required to deal with the mundane tasks of running a country-in-the-making, such as finding jobs for Palestinians in Israel and tackling a budget deficit.