New Alliance Could Strengthen Sunni Moderates in Region
One of the most vocal disputes in the Middle East may be coming to an end in a way that could have implications for the broader region. Qatar, which had been supporting the deposed Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, has recently sent signals that it wants to achieve a rapprochement with the regime of President Abdel Fatteh Al-Sisi.
Any reemergence of ties with Egypt would also mean an end to funding the Islamist Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, and forcing Hamas leader-in-exile Khaled Meshaal to leave Qatar. Hamas insisted this weekend that Qatar has not cut off its funding, and says the oil-rich country continues to support it.
Referring to Meshaal, who moved to Qatar after wearing out his welcome in Damascus, Theodore Karasik, an expert at the Institute for Near East Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, told The Media Line that, “The big question is what will happen to the Hamas leadership that has been based in Doha. Meshaal was supposed to go to Turkey, but now it looks like he may end up in Tehran.”
Karasik says that Qatar came under pressure from the other Gulf countries to change its stance toward Egypt, one of the prominent Sunni states in the region, in the face of the growing strength of the radical Islamic State (ISIS), which has taken control of large swathes of Iraq and Syria.
He says that at the most recent meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) the oil-producing countries signed an agreement to unify their policy, which includes support for the Al-Sisi regime in Egypt. Qatar, which also underwrites the widely-watched Al-Jazeera network, has come under pressure from Saudi Arabia and other GCC states to change its policy toward Hamas – which it supports — and improve ties with Egypt.
That could also affect Israel, which has long criticized Qatar for its support of Hamas.
“Qatar was caught red-handed sponsoring terror and it dealt a blow to their image,” a senior Israeli official who asked to remain anonymous told The Media Line. “They were quite happy dancing to all of the different fiddles in the region but now they are at a moment when they need to make choices.”
Israel maintains a close security relationship with Egypt, with which it has had a peace treaty since 1979. That cooperation continued during the one-year government of Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Morsi, and has intensified further under Sisi. Israel and Egypt share an interest in fighting terrorism in the Sinai Peninsula, which borders both countries, as well as trying to stop Hamas rocket fire on Israel.
That rocket fire has mostly stopped since the end of last summer’s 52-day war between Hamas and Israel. One rocket landed in Israel earlier this month and Hamas sent messages to Israel that it was not sanctioned by the organization and that it arrested the perpetrators. At the same time, reports from Gaza say Hamas has begun rebuilding some of the tunnels used by terrorists that were destroyed by Israel during the fighting.
Iran has also increased its support for Hamas, including a likely increase in funding if Qatar reduces its sponsorship. For Israel, having Qatar closely allied with Egypt, if it actually goes through with its plans, would be good news.
“It would strengthen the moderates and might end some sponsoring of terror organizations,” the Israeli official said. “When you look at developments in the region, the emergence of a solid moderate is good not only for Israel, but for the US and Europe as well.”