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Syria and Israel – A Case of Acute Mistrust

Between 1948 and 1973, Israel and Syria fought each other three times. Israel has since signed peace agreements with two Arab countries, but to this day Syria has remained its bitter enemy.
 
Mistrust and historic hatred prevent the two countries from achieving an agreement, although it seems that not much is needed in order for an agreement to be realized: Israel would have to withdraw from the Golan Heights, and Syria would have to stop supporting Israel’s enemies (such as Hamas and Hizbullah). That’s about it.
 
Can mistrust be erased? Can two sworn enemies become friends?
 
Historians would say, Yes. One clear and present example can be found in Europe. Between 1870 and 1945, France and Germany fought each other three times (sound familiar?). Trust between those two states was not in abundance back then. Only a few years later, however, these bitter enemies became allies, and today they lead the European Union.
 
So what is keeping the two Middle Eastern countries from signing a mutual agreement?
 
Talking to politicians on both sides, it seems mistrust and fear are the two most apparent reasons.
 
Syria: Let’s Talk. Israel: You’re Bluffing
 
In the past few months, Syria has called on Israel several times to resume the peace talks, which ended in failure in January 2000. Interviewed in the Spanish daily El-Pais, Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad said at the end of September 2005: "If we want to begin from the point where we stopped [in the year 2000], then the negotiations need up to six months."
 
Al-Asad and other top Syrian officials have since repeated this call several times.
 
But Israel has dismissed the call as a publicity stunt.
 
"It is not clear that the Syrians are sincere about it," member of Knesset (Israel’s parliament) Yuval Steinitz says.
 
Steinitz, a member of Israel’s ruling party, Qadima, has until recently served as head of the Knesset’s Security and Foreign Affairs Committee.
 
Israel insists on a few preconditions before entering the talks, one of which is closing what it regards as the Palestinian terrorist movements’ headquarters in the capital, Damascus. The second is for Syria to stop aiding Lebanon’s Hizbullah. By complying with these preconditions Syria would prove its sincerity. This has been the Israeli government’s view since Ariel Sharon rose to power in 2001.
 
The Syrians, however, do not understand why they have to convince Israel of their sincerity.
 
"Syria said peace was its strategic choice. We went to [the] Madrid [Convention in 1991] with hopes for peace and coexistence," Lt.-Col. (ret.) Ahmad Munir Muhammad says.
 
Muhammad, who retired from the army six years ago, today serves as secretary of the National Security Committee in the Syrian parliament. With regard to the headquarters of Palestinian movements such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Muhammad insists these are merely political offices.
 
According to Muhammad, while Syria is sincere in its call for peace, it is the State of Israel that is actually pro-war.
 
"We all feel danger from the Israeli side. Israel and its Knesset are waving their banner and slogan, according to which the boundaries of Israel [should stretch] from the Euphrates [in Iraq] to the Nile [in Egypt]. How can I relax, when Israel and President Bush are praying prayers of destruction and wishing to smash children’s heads on the ground?"
 
Thousands of years have passed since the biblical promise was made to the people of Israel that they would rule all the land from the Euphrates to the Nile. Not much is left of it today, but many in the Arab world still believe this is Israel’s official foreign policy.
 
The goal of reaching an agreement with Israel enjoys a wide consensus in Syria, claims one of Israel’s leading experts on Syria, Prof. Eyal Zisser.
 
"And when there is a will in the Arab side to engage [in talks], then we should talk," Zisser says.
 
The prospect, on the other hand, of failing to resume the talks, is very dangerous.
 
According to Zisser, "there is a fear that if we will not reach an agreement, then the situation will deteriorate."
 
And, indeed, the Syrian president clearly stated during an interview he gave last year, that "if a peace process does not take place, then perhaps [there would be] war."
 
Not All Israeli Politicians Reject The Talks
 
During a trip to the north on November 21 this year, Israel’s Defense Minister Amir Peretz stated the following: "We hear the double message arriving from Syria, and we are not ruling out political initiatives; these are always welcome in order to thwart the threats… However, we are definitely prepared also for scenarios which could generate a conflict," Peretz said.
 
The Israeli minister’s statement was accompanied by a recent, unconfirmed report in Israel’s daily Yediot Aharonot, according to which Peretz – in contrast with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s view – was seeking a way to resume the talks with Syria.
 
Expressing his views more bluntly, Peretz’s colleague in the Labor party, Danny Yatom, told The Media Line: "A political standstill and not engaging in a dialogue, would deterministically lead toward a crisis, maybe a military crisis. On the other hand, a dialogue may either postpone a military crisis, or even prevent it altogether."
 
Yatom, who served as head of Mossad (Israel’s version of the CIA) from 1996 to 1998, shares the views of many in the Israeli intelligence community, according to which Syria is ready to resume negotiations.
 
Are you not worried the Syrians may not be sincere in their call to resume talks, we asked Yatom?
 
He replied: "I do not know if they are sincere or not, but we should check it [out]."
 
With regard to the Israeli preconditions, Yatom says he would love to see them met. But it would be "a grave mistake" to use the Syrians’ refusal as an excuse for not talking with them, he says.
 
His advice is simple: "Let’s raise these claims on the first day of negotiations and see how they react… I would not be very surprised if we could reach an understanding, according to which the Syrians will kick out the terrorists’ headquarters from Damascus the day a peace agreement between Israel and Syria would be signed."
 
No One Wants War, and Yet…
 
Most experts believe that neither of the parties wants to go to war. Israel has just come out of a war with Lebanon’s Hizbullah and is engaged in a war of attrition against the Palestinian armed movements. Another front, this time against a state’s army, would be devastating for Israel, even if the odds were clearly in its favor. Syria, on the other hand, knows that the Israeli army outranks its own. Moreover, the recent talks with the United States would undoubtedly cease if a war with its Israeli ally would erupt.
 
Nevertheless, Syria continues to arm both Hizbullah and the militant Palestinian groups.
 
"If this continues… and if the current American administration and Israeli government are not capable of accepting the need for major policy changes, [then] ego and pride can eventually lead to a decision to ‘punish the Syrians,’" says Camille Alexandre Otrakji, founder of Creative Syria, a popular Syrian online think tank, which deals with current affairs.
 
Otrakji fears that if Israel launched even "a one-day punishment using its air force for example, the Syrians will have to respond." And from thereon things might escalate into war very quickly.
 
Badriyya Sheikhan, a member of the National Security Committee in the Syrian parliament, is fully aware of this realistic scenario. She says that while Syria adheres to the diplomatic path, there is always the option of resistance.
 
"If Israel will not be persuaded of the necessity of dialogue as a choice of its people – not only of its leadership – then there always remains the option of resistance, whether it is in Syria, in Palestine, or in Lebanon."
 
Meanwhile, a recent survey conducted in Israel, revealed that 59 percent of the Israeli public believed that if negotiations do not recommence, then war with Syria might erupt. Nevertheless, 54% of the respondents were not ready to pay the price – a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights.