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Tensions Increase Between Israel and Syria

Hizbullah Says It Captured Israeli Drone

Media affiliated with the Lebanon-based Hizbullah released photos of an Israeli army Skylark drone reportedly shot down by Syrian air defenses after the drone infiltrated Syrian airspace on the outskirts of Quneitra on the Golan Heights. One of the photos of the drone showed a sticker identifying the drone as a Skylark manufactured by the Israeli company Elbit.

In a rare move, the Israeli army confirmed that the drone crashed Sunday in Syrian territory during military operation in the area, but said there is no concern that any classified material was on the drone and there was no security breach. An Israeli army spokesman said the circumstances of the incident are being investigated.

News networks affiliated with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said the Syrian army chased away an Israeli drone after it breached Syrian airspace. It was also reported that a Syrian soldier was killed in an Israeli drone strike. This is not the first time that Syrian media said Israeli drones were shot down or crashed in their territory; a similar incident was reported about two months ago.

Last week, another Skylark drone crashed within the borders of the Gaza Strip during Israeli military activity. Military sources said the drones are published to shut down completely if they crash, and they have no classified information stored in their memory banks.

The Hizbullah announcement comes days after Syria fired a missile into Israel, following an Israeli strike in Syria on an apparent weapons convoy that was meant for Hizbullah. Israel has previously struck several of these convoys if they contained what Israel called “game-changing weapons.” In all of the previous cases, Syria did not comment publicly and did not respond.

This time, Syria fired at least one rocket into Israel, believed to be outdated Russian-made SA-5 surface-to-air missiles. The Israeli planes were not hit, but one of the rockets, or a piece of one, was identified and intercepted over the Jordan Valley, north of Jerusalem.

An initial Israeli Air Force investigation found that the missile had a 200-kilogram warhead, and that the crew that activated the Arrow 2 Defense system reached the decision to intercept the missile in less than a minute.

“We didn’t care if it was a surface-to-surface missile or a surface-to-air missile. There were no dilemmas or doubts, no budgetary considerations,” an Israeli air force officer told the Ynet News Agency. “The missile was supposed to hit the Jordan Valley. The Arrow was chosen in accordance with the level of threat and the availability of the defense systems on hand. There was no other option except to intercept. We operate with manual control, since you can never know how a given missile would ‘behave’ in flight. Its engine or other components can decompose along the way, changing its intended course.”

The exchange of fire comes as the civil war in Syria marks the beginning of its sixth year, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still in power. Most Israeli experts said they believed that the conflict will not escalate.

“Syria is a non-state for the time being and is not a serious challenge for the Israeli army,” Tzvi Magen, a long-time Israeli diplomat and former Israeli Ambassador to Russia told The Media Line. “With Russia is it is more complicated. Israel, along with Russia, the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are all regional actors in Syria. Russia is waiting for President Trump’s decision about his policy in the Middle East.”

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was in Russia two weeks ago for a meeting with President Putin. They also discussed arrangements to make sure there are no misunderstandings over Syria airspace.

Israel has so far stayed out of the civil war in Syria, which has seen Assad, backed by Iran, Hizbullah and Russia fighting both Syrian rebel groups and Islamic
State. The Russian air force has been a decisive element in the civil war in Syria, and one of the main reasons that Assad is still in power. Israel has of course followed the fighting carefully, and has treated several thousand wounded Syrians in Israeli hospitals. Its main goal, however, has been to stay out of the fighting.

“There was a theory early in the war — the first two or three years — that if Assad got desperate he might try to pull Israel into the war. That was a concern in Israel but it didn’t pan out,” Scott Lasensky, a former senior advisor on the Middle East for the Obama administration told The Media Line. “Now Assad seems more secure. Israel does not want chaos in Syria and they’ve grown tired of the increasing fragmentation there.”

The Syrian anti-aircraft salvo was most likely a signal to Israel that Assad’s policy of restraint in the face of Israeli attacks is set to change. In the future, Israel will have to decide whether the goal of stopping advanced weapons systems to Hizbullah justifies the possible risk of an Israeli jet being shut down, and a broader conflict with Syria.