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Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad (SANA)
Five years after assuming power, Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad is in the hot seat. And as things stand at the moment, it isn’t getting any cooler.
The international investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri has placed Syria in the limelight, after the probe, led by Detlev Mehlis, indicated Syria had a heavy hand in the killing.
Damascus is at a crossroads. It can swallow its pride and comply with the United Nations resolution demanding it cooperates with the investigative commission. Or it can flex muscles, be resolute in its insistence that Syria had nothing to do with the assassination, and risk international sanctions, or even military action.
Problems at Home
But the probe is not the only matter of concern for Bashar Al-Asad. In fact, it might be the least of his problems.
Bashar Al-Asad became a leader by default. His father, the powerful Hafiz Al-Asad, ruled the country with an iron fist until his death in 2000, living up to the family name, Al-Asad, which means ‘The Lion.’ Bashar has emerged a pussycat, at best.
The current regime is festered with corruption, power struggles, a stagnant economy and a prevailing feeling that Bashar’s days as president are numbered. The political and economic circumstances have caused a large brain drain, rife unemployment and a huge Syrian exile which some people suggest is as large as the population within Syria’s borders.
The Al-Hariri probe is merely an additional element of Al-Asad’s woes.
The international pressure on Syria might even work in Bashar Al-Asad’s favor, said Nadim Shehadi, a Syria expert at Chatham House. The Syrian regime claims there is a global conspiracy against Damascus and the local opposition is backing off so as not to be seen as though they are dancing to the tune of the West, he said.
‘The Godfather’
To the average outsider, the Syrian regime looks strong and stable, but keen observers quickly note the cracks in the system in the form of power struggles, family feuds and sibling rivalry. Bashar may be at the top, but there are plenty of people, even within the inner circle of family and close confidants, who are willing to stab him in the back.
“It’s like the Godfather,” Shehadi said. “It’s business, it’s not personal.” If a person like Bashar is regarded as a liability, he will be forcibly removed for the sake of saving the regime, he explained, but the regime will always retain a strong appearance to outsiders.
One thing keeping Al-Asad at the top is that Syrians fear the alternative to his rule will be mayhem. “They see Iraq next door,” Shehadi said. “People are worried of an Iraq-styled chaos.”
The ruling Allawite minority, and especially the Al-Asad clan, will do all in their power to retain Allawite dominance. If someone needs to be sacrificed in the process, this will be done, Shehadi said.
Allies Turn Enemies
Bashar Al-Asad’s popularity in the Syrian street is unclear, given Syria’s opaque character. Some people believe there is an element of genuineness in the orchestrated demonstrations of sympathy for Al-Asad frequently seen in Damascus’ squares. But there is a general agreement that he lacks his father’s dominating presence.
Bashar Al-Asad was not the first choice to succeed his ailing father. It was only after the sudden death of his older brother Basil in a road accident in 1994 that he was pulled away from his ophthalmology studies in London and pushed through military service until reaching a worthy rank.
His grooming into leadership was swift, some say sloppy, and the vacuum at the top allowed the emergence of key influential figures. Some of these personalities are as powerful as Bashar, if not more.
The person most people believe poses the gravest danger to Bashar’s position is A’sif Shawkat, head of Syria’s military intelligence service and husband of Bashar’s only sister, Bushra.
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Al-Asad family: the late Hafiz Al-Asad and his wife Anisa, seated. Their children, left to right: Maher, Bashar, Basil (deceased), Majid, and Bushra.
Shawkat married Bushra, who is ten years his junior, when he was divorced with five children. The fact that the marriage took place despite vociferous opposition from the late president Hafiz Al-Asad and Bushra’s younger brother Basil, speaks volumes of Shawkat’s strong sway in Syria’s upper echelons.
Shawkat, a close aide of Bashar, and Bashar’s brother Maher, are currently key suspects in the investigation and the balance of power between them and Bashar is very fragile.
Bashar is under pressure to deliver the suspects implicated in the Mehlis report, but if Bashar himself was involved in the assassination, he will not turn anyone in unless he can be sure he himself is off the hook. “He cannot just turn them in as scapegoats to the system unless there is a private deal between him and the Americans,” Shehadi said.
But this system works both ways. Shawkat is capable of instigating an internal coup together with his wife Bushra, who is considered “the brains” of the Al-Asad family, Shehadi said. But if they are guilty, they will not go ahead with such an ambitious move.
The history of the Al-Asad family is replete with family feuds and rivalries. Hafiz Al-Asad exiled his own brother Rifaat in 1984, after a failed coup attempt. Rifaat now runs a television station out of London and threatens to return to Syria victorious.
Other elements of Bashar’s family also hold high positions and have built a base of power through the institutions they control. Exactly how powerful they are is a matter of speculation.
Impact on the economy
Financially, Syria is not at its best at the moment, and here too, the political situation is likely to make its mark.
Dr. Bassam Fattouh, a reader in finance and management at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London said it is still too early to say what impact the current political impasse will have on the Syrian economy. Still, he pointed to several elements working against Syria.
Sanctions from the United States have already taken their toll, with at least two American oil exploration companies pulling out of Syria earlier this year. These companies are easily replaceable, Fattouh said, but wider sanctions from the U.N. are in the offing, which could devastate the country’s economy.
Fattouh urged to regard with caution reports suggesting that wealthy Syrian investors pulled out billions of dollars from Syria ahead of the Mehlis report, fearing sanctions. Still, these reports are not without foundation.
“There is a lot of uncertainty and the investors are worried,” Fattouh said.
Another matter of concern for foreign investors is that Syria’s political elite is very involved in the business sector. “Instability at the top is likely to change the rules of the game,” he said. “So if there’s a question mark on certain partners, the foreign investors are likely to start getting worried.”
Syria has been very slow in reforming its economy. The country is trying to attract foreign investors to explore more oil fields, but rising domestic consumption of oil and the failure to make new major oil discoveries is likely to force Syria to seek alternative sources of income within a decade, Fattouh estimated.
Fattouh believes there is a new generation of powerful figures in the Syrian regime who know they will not benefit from economic reforms and are pulling strings behind the scenes to stall a transition from a public dominated economy to a private sector economy.
Syrians are presenting a strong front to the outside world, showing unequivocal support for Bashar Al-Asad in the face of what they see as an American and Israeli conspiracy to topple their regime and turn Syria into a second Iraq.
But the cracks in Bashar Al-Asad’s delicate leadership are already apparent. It will take a great deal of cunning for him to preserve the precarious balance between internal and outside pressures to emerge from this crisis soundly.
“The regime is already dead,” said Shehadi. “It’s just a matter of time for the death certificate to be issued.”