Ask anyone in the world where they believe is the current war-torn hotspot, international terror center and diplomatic nightmare and they will point, most likely, to Iraq or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, maybe even to Afghanistan. In other words, to the Middle East.
Try a second question: ask them what they think the fighting is all about. The response will be varied, but generally within the realms of oil, land, religion.
Ask those same questions in 10, 15 or 20 years and the answer to the first will no doubt be the same. However, the second could well be very different.
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Rain.
The further south you travel into the Middle East the browner the scenery, the more cracked the earth, the thinner the sheep. Flying over the U.S. or Europe one is amazed by the number of golf courses. To a golfer the Middle East really is a desert. One giant sand-trap. Even in the oil rich emirates green is a rarity.
True, Israel has made the desert blossom, but not by using abundant rainfall, rather by taking recycled water in very carefully monitored and restricted supply.
As the Arab-Israeli conflict looks for its next bone of contention every few months or years, it will eventually reach the ‘biggie’, the final battle. The Dead Sea that separates Israel from Jordan could well disappear for good if the Red Sea-Dead Sea pipeline/canal is not constructed quickly. While that would be a conservational disaster it is merely a sign of things to follow.
The population of the Middle East is on the increase. In many Arab countries the under 18s make up huge proportions of the overall total. At the same time the precious water resources that remain are being depleted.
The international community will at some point have to move to prevent countries as diverse as Egypt and Afghanistan from becoming the next Ethiopias. Water desalination seems to be the only solution right now. The Mediterranean, Red Sea and Persian Gulf must be tapped. Initial investment is in the billions, but surely it is worthwhile planning now, rather than reacting to what could be the cause of Armageddon a few years down the line.
Of course the problem is that no international leader wants to invest for 20 years into the future, when they face domestic election rather more imminently.

