1. PA VOTE ON ‘ABBAS THIS WEEK, OPPOSITION MOUNTS… The Palestinian Legislative Council will vote on the new cabinet headed by Mahmoud ‘Abbas, probably on Wednesday. Although most observers believe the vote of confidence will be forthcoming, a number of PLC members loyal to Yassir Arafat are determined to prevent the process from being easy. The vote had been scheduled for Monday, but was pushed off until Wednesday, which is the final date possible, because of the internal conflict. To date, prime minister-designate ‘Abbas has not submitted a full list of cabinet appointees to the PLC while controversy holds sway over appointments such as that of Muhammad Dahlan to head a primary security service. Under the agreement reached between Arafat and ‘Abbas, Arafat will retain control over at least ten security organizations and ‘Abbas only about four. ‘Abbas is also said to be attempting to convince PA terrorist arms to call a cease-fire before the inauguration of the new cabinet, but no success has been reported in that direction. American sources confirmed that the “Road Map for Peace” will be formally introduced as soon as the ‘Abbas confirmation is completed, and Israel Radio reported that both Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud ‘Abbas will be invited to visit the White House once that happens. In a Friday interview, U.S. President George W. Bush made clear that ‘Abbas will be welcome at the White House while Yassir Arafat will not.
2. BE WARY OF CEASE-FIRE: ISRAEL MILITARY INTEL CHIEF… Major General Aharon Zeevi, Israel’s chief of military intelligence, told Channel 1 television that a cease-fire could be used by terrorist organizations to “recover and regroup” and warned that [Palestinian Authority prime minister-designate] Mahmoud ‘Abbas “is the first person to understand that.” He urged “caution and vigilance” in formulating policy once the new PA leader is sworn in. Zeevi also cautioned that while the threat from the east has been reduced as a result of the Iraqi war, Iran’s non-conventional weapons and ballistic missiles remain a very significant threat.
3. TERROR ATTACK AVERTED WITH HELP FROM ATTACKER’S FATHER… The father of an 18-year old Palestinian Arab intent on attacking the Jewish community of Itamar with a knife sought the assistance of nearby Israeli soldiers to prevent his son from acting. He said that his son is mentally unbalanced and has tried to attack Itamar before. The 18-year old was placed under arrest. The army confirmed the obvious: the father saved his son’s life because shoot-to-kill rules of engagement are in effect when a potential attacker is spotted near an Israeli community.
4. ISRAELI GOVERNMENT TO DIPLOMATS: DON’T MEET WITH ARAFAT… The Sharon government is aggressively discouraging foreign diplomats from meeting with Yassir Arafat. It is going as far as denying access to Israel’s top echelon of leadership if such meetings are held. The policy is consistent with Sharon’s long-held interest in rendering Arafat “irrelevant” and is being made acceptable by couching it in terms of preventing the undermining of the authority of newly appointed Palestinian Authority prime minister Mahmoud ‘Abbas. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones, in an interview with a European newspaper last week, also encouraged diplomats to boycott Arafat, confirming that the U.S. is doing so. The American/Israeli position that ‘Abbas is the new Palestinian leader is not supported by the agreement between ‘Abbas and Arafat, in which Arafat retains the vast majority of his power, including control over most security arms and a veto over negotiations with Israel.
5. ARAB NATIONS, INCLUDING U.S. ‘ALLIES’, BASH U.S., ISRAEL… Fifteen Arab nations meeting in Damascus stood at the side of Iraq and Syria in demanding that the United States withdraw from Iraq immediately, and called for a renewed effort in boycotting Israeli goods. Significant was both the venue and the list of participants. The Americans have been exerting great pressure on Syria, focusing on its possession of non-conventional weapons and its assistance to Iraq. The critical statement was issued in Damascus and represented nations with which the United States believes it has good relations, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Morocco and Qatar. The stated purpose of the meeting was to re-energize the anti-Israel boycott which was begun in 1951, but which became lax since agreements with Israel were signed by Egypt and Jordan.
6. RAISED EYEBROWS AT SHILOH CEREMONY… The participation of Knesset Speaker and Sharon confidant Reuven Rivlin at a cornerstone laying ceremony at the Jewish community of Shiloh in post-1967 territory has raised diplomatic eyebrows. At issue is the Israeli building in such areas, a freeze on which has been cast as the foremost demand on Israel in the forthcoming “Road Map for Peace.” Adding to the confusion is a recent statement by Prime Minister Sharon that named Shiloh and two other communities as examples of where “painful concessions” for peace would be made, encouraging Sharon critics to believe that the Prime Minister is serious about supporting the newest international effort to bring peace to the region. While public discourse was increasingly pointing to newfound, albeit cautious, support for Sharon from the left – including a possible reshuffling of the cabinet to include the opposition Labor Party – Rivlin laid the cornerstone of a building project in the very community that Sharon indicated would be abandoned in the name of peace. The position of successive Israeli governments has been that any “settlement freeze” would not include building that is necessitated by the “natural growth” of the community. That, however, predated Sharon’s hints that some locations might be abandoned altogether.
7. ISRAEL RADIO: LOAN GUARANTEE APPROVAL IMMINENT… Israel Radio has reported that American loan guarantees for Israel worth $9 billion will be approved in Washington this week. The approval, however, has some difficult strings attached, including passage of the emergency economic austerity package and reductions of both the deficit and public sector. While all of the prerequisites are part of the plan that Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has submitted, its passage intact remains questionable while the powerful Histadrut labor federation is continuing to threaten a nation-crippling general strike unless portions of the plan are implemented through negotiation rather than legislation. The level of layoffs, cuts and reductions also remains at issue. According to the agreed terms, the guarantees will be issued in installments. Approval for any or all installments can be withheld by the American president if he believes that Israel is not in compliance with requirements. The Israeli Finance Ministry clearly hopes that the American conditions will provide a tool for extracting compromises from labor leaders.
8. SCHOOL STRIKE AVERTED… The Passover school holiday was observed with a cloud hanging overhead as parents and students and teachers did not know whether classes would resume on schedule. The threat of a strike has loomed large since severe budget cutbacks and massive teacher layoffs were announced as part of the emergency economic stringency program that the Treasury is implementing. Education Minister Limor Livnat personally met with the head of the teachers’ unions and reached sufficient agreements to avert the strike. Both sides are looking for ways to cut costs without reducing the number of instructional hours.
9. EL AL PRIVATIZATION START IMMINENT… The first step in the long-discussed privatization of Israel’s flag-carrier El Al Israel Airlines, will come with the public offering of all of its shares on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, and not the 49% often suggested as a preliminary stage. The government will retain what is being termed a “golden share” in order to protect its “essential state interests.” This includes the ability to use the airline to transport passengers and goods during any emergency. Globes financial newspaper reported the decision of the Government Companies Authority following a meeting with the airline’s potential investors. If approved by the ministerial privatization committee, the shares will reach the Exchange in May.
10. WATER MIRACLE NEAR COMPLETE… Prior to this past winter, Israeli water supply experts predicted that it would take several seasons of above-average rainfall to bring the nation’s reservoirs back to normal levels following several years of drought conditions. Now, following a rainy weekend that capped a season of record rains, the water level in the Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel’s primary water source, is only 90 centimeters (3.5 inches) below its maximum.