As another magnificent dawn rises over the Holy land, Israelis are waking up to a very new reality.
Far more significant than the 37 seats of the Likud or the long knives that await Amram Mitzna – Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has to make a choice that could very well affect the entire future of the State of Israel.
He seemingly has three options, two of which are immediate, the third for the longer term:
1. Sharon can send his minions to open negotiations for the formation of a rightist-religious coalition, including parties such as the National Union, United Torah Judaism and Shas
2. Sharon can ask Shinui to replace the religious parties in a rightist-secular coalition
3. Sharon can hope that Labor will break its election promise and join a centrist-secular government with Likud and Shinui.
For now, the pundits are suggesting No. 1 seems the most likely option, especially because Shinui says it will not sit with the religious, nor the “extreme right-wing” parties.
What does option 1 mean for the peace process and Bush administration?
President George W. Bush, and even more so Secretary of State Colin Powell, will be disappointed with the election result as it probably means more of the same policies and an unlikely return to the negotiating table.
It is also a blow to Bush’s bid to build a wider coalition against Iraq, particularly in the Arab world. With the carrot of Israeli territorial concessions, Bush would have been treading much more boldly through the region. Now, once again, he will be accused of defending “the Zionists.”
However, it is clear that the mood of the Israeli people, who bothered to vote, is hawkish and as such, that should become Sharon’s main concern.
The next month will be a testing time for Sharon, who has never before gone through the coalition-building process. But while Israel and the world wait to see which way Sharon will turn, the sun will continue to rise in the morning and set in the evening.
At least some things are predictable.