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Iranian President Muhammad Khatami (IRNA)
Iran claims it is seeking to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes. The United States claims Iran may use new nuclear power generation facilities to build atomic weapons.
Threats of military intervention and counter-strikes have been tossed back and forth and tension surrounding the nuclear issue continues to rise.
Jane’s Intelligence Digest reported as early as July 2004 that the U.S. has drawn up plans for a potential military response to the issue.
Nevertheless, an Iranian source said Americans would be more than welcome in Tehran for face-to-face nuclear negotiations and believes a peaceful solution to the dispute is possible.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani told Reuters on February 6 that his country’s “nuclear activities have been peaceful and will always remain peaceful.” Speaking to the Islamic Republic News Agency, he added that “we have never been attempting to develop nuclear weapons and the idea has no room in our defense strategy.”
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Nuclear test site at Parchin (GlobalSecurity.org/Digital Globe)
Indeed, an agreement specifying just this was signed in Paris on November 15, 2004 between representatives from Iran, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, with the support of the High Representative of the European Union – known together as “E3/EU.”
According to the agreement, “the E3/EU and Iran reaffirm their commitment to the NPT (the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that went into force in 1970). Iran reaffirms that, in accordance with Article II of the NPT, it does not and will not seek to acquire nuclear weapons. It commits itself to full cooperation and transparency with the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).”
Despite the reassuring sounds of the November agreement, the U.S. remained cautious and shortly after the deal was signed, then Secretary of State Colin Powell reminded the world that Iran could not necessarily be trusted.
The E3/EU “got an agreement with Iran in the fall of 2003, and then Iran violated that agreement and broke the commitments that it made,” Powell told reporters during a November 17 press briefing.
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(IRIB)
The big question: Is Iran’s nuclear program aimed at peace or at war?
According to the E3/EU-Iran document, the parties would seek to reach a mutually acceptable long-term arrangement regarding the Islamic republic’s use of nuclear power. “The agreement will provide objective guarantees that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes.”
A senior media figure in Tehran confirmed that Iran seeks nuclear power in order to end its dependence on finite fossil fuels. He also noted that the development of nuclear weapons would be contradictory to Islamic beliefs.
However, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told CNN’s Late Edition program on February 6 that Iran is indeed seeking nuclear weaponry albeit achievement of this capability is still “years away.” He also said the U.S. intends to use diplomacy rather than military might in dealing with the issue.
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The November agreement stipulated that “Iran has decided, on a voluntary basis, to continue and extend its suspension to include all enrichment related and reprocessing activities.”
Even though Iran voluntarily agreed to halt nuclear enrichment activities as a confidence-building measure for a three-month period, these activities may eventually be resumed – for either peaceful or military purposes.
Uranium enriched in uranium-235 atoms is required in light-water reactors to produce a controlled nuclear reaction. Reactor fuel must have a higher concentration of U-235 (between three and five percent) than exists in natural uranium ore because U-235 is the key ingredient that starts and maintains a nuclear reaction. The various enrichment processes are carried out in any nuclear power plant, whether military or civilian.
According to the media source, the suspension of uranium enrichment activities remains in effect at this time. However, this suspension is not permanent and may be halted if Iran feels – as it has recently – that negotiations with the Europeans are breaking down.
“Since the EU has failed to take the negotiations seriously we may put an end to the suspension of the enrichment,” the media source said.
The source also noted that Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani may quit talks with the EU nations, which he claims are caving in under increasing U.S. pressure to take a hard-line vis-à-vis Iran.
Indeed, British Prime Minister Tony Blair told a parliamentary committee on February 8 that the Islamic republic is involved in terrorism. “It certainly does sponsor terrorism. There’s no doubt about that,” Blair said, echoing long-held claims made by the U.S.
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(ISNA)
Though efforts are currently aimed more at the diplomatic front, the Americans have made a show of flexing their military muscles in the context of the Iranian nuclear dispute. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has also said that Israel might launch a preemptive aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The Tehran source doubted the reality of an Israeli attack, relegating Cheney’s statements to an attempt at psychological warfare and saying that Iran would respond robustly to any foreign attack – whether American or Israeli.
The source said, however, he does not believe the nuclear conflict will end in a military conflagration and foresees the potential for a situation in which Iran actually hosts American representatives in Tehran to discuss the nuclear issue face-to-face.
Such a scenario, he said, depends to a certain extent upon the reelection to office of ‘Ali Akbar Hashimi Rafsanjani, former president and one of Iran’s most powerful figures.
If Rafsanjani is victorious in the spring elections, there may well be a normalization of U.S.-Iranian relations and a peaceful settlement to the nuclear dispute, the media figure predicted.
In a Sunday interview with USA Today, his first with a U.S. journalist since 1997, the 70-year-old Rafsanjani stressed common American-Iranian interests and suggested the U.S. unfreeze billions in Iranian assets as a goodwill gesture.
“I think Rafsanjani will win the elections,” the Tehran source told The Media Line.
“Iran would welcome any U.S. delegation to come to Iran to start talks. But first the U.S. should show its goodwill. It is the U.S. that must take the first step. But the U.S. says it is Iran who must take the first step,” he said.
There seems to exist the potential for a peaceful solution to the U.S.-Iran nuclear conflict as well as for a general improvement in relations between the two states. It remains to be seen, however, which side will take the brave first step.