Arab Unrest Reaches the Peaceful Sultanate of Oman, but Sultan Qaboos Capable of Quelling Public Anger, experts say
Oman, a sleepy Gulf Sultanate considered until recently to be the most stable in the Middle East, has been rocked over the weekend by violent clashes between protesters and government forces.
Some 1,000 stone-throwing demonstrators in the port city and industrial hub of Sohar demanded political reform. Police moved in with tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse them, reportedly killing two protestors in the city some 200 kilometers west of the capital Muscat.
Protests in Oman began on Friday in the southern city of Salalah, the country’s second largest, where demonstrators camped out near the office of a provincial governor, Reuters reported.
“What is happening in Oman came as a surprise to observers. No-one expected this,” Dr. Ahmad Saif, Executive Director of Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS), a Yemeni think tank, told The Media Line.
One of the most isolated countries in the Arabian Gulf, Oman has so-far eschewed the social unrest which engulfed much of the Arab world, toppling long-lasting regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. Sultan Qaboos Bin Said, the country’s ruler, took power after deposing his father in a 1970 coup and rules by decree. Historically a conglomeration of fishing communities, Oman now derives its income from oil production, agriculture and tourism. It is a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a political and economic union of Gulf States.
In what has become almost an automatic first response to social unrest by Arab rulers, on Saturday Sultan Qaboos reshuffled his cabinet, replacing the heads of six minor ministries. Oman was considered the most stable Middle East country by Foreign Policy Magazine’s Failed State Index 2010.
"I think Sultan Qaboos has the tools to contain the demonstrations. He has displayed more flexibility than other leaders in his political behavior and was faster than them to deliver concessions,” Saif said.
Saif added that Qaboos was different than other Arab autocrats in several ways. Unmarried and without children, the Sultan’s family is small and politically non-circumstantial. Moreover, the family was not involved in the country’s business sector.
"Oman is neither Egypt, nor Libya, nor Bahrain," Theodore Karasik, director of research and development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, a Dubai-based think tank, told The Media Line. "Oman sees itself as distant from other GCC countries. It maintains a special relationship with Iran on the one hand and with the US and United Kingdom on the other."
Karasik said that so far demonstrators were not demanding the Sultan’s ouster, adding that protesters may be satisfied with limited political reforms and government handouts to impoverished regions of the country. The question of succession was also significant, as the unmarried Sultan has never designated an heir.
Oman was an unlikely candidate for political unrest, according to international indicators at least. It has recently earmarked an astounding $79 billion between now and 2015 to develop the country’s tourism, manufacturing, farm and fishery sectors by building infrastructure, upgrading education and training and encouraging private business.
Unlike its Gulf neighbors, whose real-estate bubble recently exploded, Oman has prudently invested its money in development and health. The United Nations 2010 Human Development Report cited the country as making more progress than any other in the world in education and health over in the last 40 years.
Investment bank EFG-Hermes estimates Oman’s gross domestic product grew 4.2% last year, the fastest pace of growth among Gulf Cooperation Council countries after Qatar, whose output jumped 18%.
Oman’s western neighbor Yemen has witnessed much social unrest, however. On Friday, an estimated 100,000 Yemenis demonstrated across the country, all joining a nation-wide protest movement dubbed "the beginning of the end", referring to the 33-year-long regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Dr. Saif spoke of a snow-ball effect influencing Oman, since its neighbors Yemen and Bahrain both witnessed widespread social unrest in recent weeks. He said, however, that the internet and satellite channels had no less influence.
"Today, thanks to the internet, there are no more secrets," he said.