Russia, Iran and U.S. will all maintain a military presence in the country, which, absent a political solution, will remain a powder keg
Russia’s defense minister confirmed Tuesday that Moscow has started pulling out some of its military personnel from Syria, after President Vladimir Putin announced the move during a surprise visit to a Russian military installation in the country. Moscow intervened in the conflict in September 2015 and has played an instrumental role, along with Iran, in turning the tide in favor of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
While the Kremlin similarly called for a pullout of “the main part” of its troops from Syria in March 2016, Moscow thereafter ramped up its military campaign before again declaring a “scaling down” towards the end of last year. Nevertheless, Putin was met on Monday by Assad at the Hmeimim airbase near Latakia, which the Russian leader said will be maintained “on a permanent basis” in addition to Moscow’s naval base at Tartus.
Some estimates suggest that as many as 10,000 Russian servicemen are still actively engaged in the war. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported this week that Russia’s air strikes over the course of its mission in Syria have killed 6,328 civilians, including 1,537 children.
According to Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel and a Senior Fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center, it would be surprising if the Russians withdrew from Syria in any significant manner. “They will likely maintain an air presence at least over the short-term and the naval one will be permanent,” he contended to The Media Line. “In Russia’s view, it has won in Syria and will seek to maintain some post-war order. At the same time, the Russians want Iran to do the dirty work for them on the ground, while controlling things from above, even though the countries’ interests are not identical.”
Russia’s maneuvering comes a week after the Pentagon disclosed that there are about 2,000 U.S. soldiers in Syria, four times as many than previously publicly acknowledged. Moreover, an American military spokesman confirmed that U.S. troops would remain in the country even as the fight against the Islamic State nears its end; namely, in support of mainly Kurdish fighters who were instrumental in liberating Raqqa, the former de facto capital of ISIS’ self-declared caliphate.
The U.S. also is apparently broadening its ostensible goals to include combatting al Qa’ida-linked groups. In response, the Syrian government accused Washington of coming up with excuses to maintain its military presence in the country.
As regards the U.S. approach, Freilich does not believe that President Donald Trump has a post-ISIS strategy in Syria. “It does not appear that they have a plan other than to not leave the country in the hands of the Russians and Iranians. Basically,” he elaborated, “Washington is not a significant player in the arena, which serves neither American nor Israeli interests, as Assad will remain in power and be subjected to influences that are anathema to both nations.
“The end result,” Freilich stressed, “is that [absent U.S. military involvement], Syria will becomes a semi-Iranian satellite, if not a forward operating base.”
In fact, Tehran is intent on maintaining a permanent foothold in Syria. Its Hizbullah proxy has thousands of fighters in the country, supported by thousands more foreign Shiite mercenaries. The Islamic Republic also has its own boots on the ground, with members of the elite Revolutionary Guards Corps having directed many operations in Syria.
This presence, however, is vehemently opposed by Israel. To this end, Jerusalem has repeatedly conducted air strikes to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hizbullah and, recently, purportedly targeted an Iranian military base being constructed just south of the Syrian capital.
According to Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shimon Shapira, a Senior Analyst at The Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs who formerly served as a military adviser in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, the Jewish state and the Islamic Republic are on a collision course. “Iran is seeking to develop four types of military infrastructure in Syria,” he explained to The Media Line. “First, an air base in the Damascus area or in the Alawite coastal region; second, a naval base [giving it access to the Mediterranean]; the third being military facilities; and the fourth is in the form of Shiite fighters—including Iraqi, Afghani and Pakistanis who battled against ISIS—that will be eventually be moved into the Golan Heights.
“Recently,” Dr. Shapira continued, “there was a visit by an Iraqi militia commander to south Lebanon, a sign that the Iranians want to further build its presence along Israel’s borders. Jerusalem will obviously try to stop this,” he expounded, “but one miscalculation can send the entire situation spiraling out of control.”
As such, the dynamic in Syria remains both complex and combustible, without even taking into account remaining ISIS loyalists in the country—who have reportedly fled to remote desert areas and likely will revert to insurgency tactics—as well as multiple lesser-known extremist groups still vying for control over pockets of territory.
This threat is compounded by the ongoing political instability, which will become a greater focus—given that the Sunni-majority Syrian populace has been devastated by Assad’s Alawite (a variation of Shiite Islam) regime—as the war winds down.
In this respect, UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva have, over the past year, increasingly been overshadowed by a separate, parallel process in the Kazakh capital of Astana—led by Russia, Iran and Turkey—which has largely excluded internationally-recognized Syrian opposition groups.
“All conflicts generally come to an end with a political settlement,” Freilich concluded, “but such an eventuality will require Assad to address the different ethnic groups in the country. It could take the form of a power-sharing agreement or perhaps a federation of sorts, as Kurdish and Sunni concerns will have to be addressed.
“Otherwise, the bloodbath could continue.”