Some fear return to daily clashes
A two and a half year cease-fire between the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) collapsed this month with a roadside attack that killed 16 Turkish soldiers. It is the highest single attack death toll on the Turkish military since the end of the 1990’s, and Erdogan responded with air strikes on PKK bases in Iraq.
The attacks came as Turkey is preparing for a new election on November 1, in which Erdogan hopes to consolidate his power, amid hopes that the PKK will not pass the ten percent threshold needed to enter the government.
“Since the end of July there has been a serious escalation in violence between the PKK and the security forces,” Andrew Gardener, a researcher on Turkey for Amnesty International told The Media Line. “There are daily attacks by the PKK on security force and in response the government attacks PKK bases in northern Iraq and Turkey.”
Amnesty says that both sides in the conflict – the PKK and the Turkish army – are committing human rights violations. The police have deliberately shot and killed some in “extrajudicial executions”, Amnesty claimed, as well as police using live ammunition to disperse demonstrations.
The outbreak of violence also calls into question the elections scheduled for November 1. Since the fighting resumed in July, more than 100 members of the Turkish security forces have been killed. Turkish officials say that 2,000 members of the PKK have also died, but that could not be independently confirmed.
Members of the PKK said it may not be possible to hold an election in the face of all of the violence.
“It is becoming impossible to hold an election given the security situation in the region,” Selahattin Demirtas, the head of the HDP, the Kurdish party in Parliament, told a news conference in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir.
“We want an election to be held and we are not saying an election can’t be held, but we want the conditions in the region to be improved for an election.”
Analysts speculated that the HDP is afraid it may not reach the ten percent necessary to get into parliament. That is exactly what Erdogan and his AKP party are hoping.
“The HDP has become the fourth party in parliament on an equal footing with MHP (the far-right National Movement Party, also known as the Gray Wolves) ,” Marc Pierini, an expert on Turkey at the Carnegie Europe and a former European Union ambassador told The Media Line. “It is the main impediment for Erdogan who want to consolidate more power.”
Turkey, along with the US and NATO, see the PKK as a terrorist organization. During the 1990’s, government and PKK fighting cost an estimated 40,000 lives, and there is fear of a return to widespread violence.
At the same time, the Kurds, who are present in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, have been successfully fighting Islamic State, says Pierini. They have long wanted to create an independent state, and the collapse of Syria has strengthened that desire.
“The Iraqi Kurds have shown strong resilience against Islamic State and have received weapons from the West,” he said. “In Syria, the Kurds have received US air support. This is all new and worrying for Erdogan.”
Both a military and a political solution to the Kurdish issue in Turkey have not succeeded. Analyst say that the Kurds are likely to continue to push for an independent state in parts of Syria, Iraq and Turkey.
Robert Swift contributed reporting