Israelis on all sides preparing to respond
The public spat between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Economy Minister Naftali Bennett over Netanyahu’s suggestion that Jews should be able to remain in established communities located in areas that Israel acquired in 1967 — albeit under Palestinian sovereignty — is a precursor to what will happen here once US Secretary of State John Kerry actually releases his “framework” peace plan.
That originally was supposed to happen by the end of January, after Kerry made 11 trips here since taking office, and has spent countless hours shuttling between Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Almost every day newspaper headlines trumpet speculation of what the plan will or will not contain.
“Since all of the negotiations are behind closed doors, the Israeli public, and even us in the opposition don’t really know many of the details of the Kerry plan,” Stav Shaffir, a member of parliament [Knesset] with the center-left opposition Labor party told The Media Line. “But once we have something on the table we will have something to argue in favor of. This could really be a turning point.”
So far, much of the opposition to the plan has come from the political right in Israel. Under threats that he would be forced to resign, Bennett “apologized” for his sharp criticism of Netanyahu saying that he “respects” the Prime Minister and his “leadership under difficult conditions.” But in the next breath, Bennett repeated that “imposing Palestinian sovereignty on Israeli citizens is dangerous, and it was my responsibility to take this idea off the agenda immediately.”
Whatever the final details of the Kerry framework agreement, it will include Israeli withdrawal from large swaths of land that Israel acquired in the 1967 war. According to the Yesha Council, which represents the Israeli Jews who inhabit the contested areas, there are 375,000 Israelis living in over 150 communities, along with an additional 200,000 who reside in east Jerusalem, which Israeli annexed.
“The Kerry plan has gone through various manifestations — first it was a comprehensive peace agreement, then just an agreement, then a framework agreement, and now it’s a suggestion,” Elie Pieprz, director of external affairs for the Yesha Council told The Media Line. “It keeps withering and withering away.”
Even if Israel annexes several large “blocs” where many of the communities are located, an estimated 120,000 Israelis would still have to leave their homes. Pieprz points to the unilateral withdrawal of 9,000 Israelis from the Gaza Strip in 2005, and says Israel must learn from that experience.
“We made a tremendous sacrifice and it was thrown back in our face,” he said. “Nobody feels any safer. We have missile attacks from Gaza on the south. The withdrawal from Gaza was bad on so many levels that Israelis don’t even want to think about withdrawing from Judea and Samaria (the Biblical names for the West Bank).”
Any large-scale relocation of Israelis would also be expensive. Giora Eiland, the former director of the National Security Council estimates that it will cost a minimum of $34 billion to pay these Israelis compensation and build them new homes. At the same time, Israeli Finance Minister Yair Lapid is warning that the lack of a deal could be an even greater economic disaster for Israel because the GDP could be reduced by billion of dollars a year if the European Union cancels agreements with Israel for its refusal to turn the land over to the Palestinians.
Once the Kerry plan is released, the pressure on Netanyahu will increase. If he goes along with the American-brokered proposals, it is widely presumed that the right-wing of his coalition, led by Bennett, would bolt from the government. If he turns the US down, the center and left, led by Finance Minister Yair Lapid, could leave.
“This governing coalition is depending on nothing happening,” Guy Ben Porat, professor of public policy at Ben Gurion University told The Media Line. “Netanyahu is likely to wait and see what the Palestinians do. He hopes that they will say no to the agreement and then he won’t have to make a decision.”
Ben Porat says there is a “large, uncertain Israeli middle” that have mixed feelings about a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
“If you ask most Israelis whether Israel maintaining its hold on the West Bank is sustainable in the long run, they will say no,” he said. “But there is quite a distance from that feeling to reaching an agreement.”
Netanyahu has promised to hold a national referendum before signing any peace deal. That could be a good thing, says Labor’s Shaffir, because she believes many will support it in the long run.
“I’m third generation to the (Israeli-Palestinian) conflict and people my age no longer understand why we are still stuck in this conflict,” Shaffir, 28, and the youngest member of the Israeli parliament said. “We want to see progress economically and politically. For so many years there was no progress and we were all depressed and devastated. Now, we want Israel to do the right and moral thing which will also help us remain a strong democracy.”
Many here believe this will be the last big push by the US for a peace deal, and that if Kerry fails, it will mean the end of the possibility of the two-state solution: an independent Palestinian state next to Israel.
“I’m not sure if it really means the end of the two-state solution,” Ben Porat said. “But the window of opportunity is definitely closing.”
While most of what Israelis and Palestinians believe they know about the Kerry framework plan is speculation, forces pro- and con- on both sides show no readiness to concede their positions.