Representatives from Hamas and the Palestine Liberation Organization signed a pact last week in Yemen that aims to pave the way to reconciliation between Hamas and the PLO’s main faction, Fatah, after months of hostilities between the two groups.
But the details of this agreement remain sketchy and there are doubts it will amount to anything substantial. The agreement outlined the continuance of negotiations, but to what end?
While Fatah wants an immediate return to the situation before June 2007, with security compounds and national institutions returning to the control of the Palestinian Authority led by Fatah’s Mahmoud ‘Abbas, Hamas says the way this would be implemented is still negotiable.
It is still in question whether Hamas will indeed cede control over the Gaza Strip and return to the pre-June situation. It is also unclear whether Hamas, which now runs a breakaway government in Gaza, will form a unity government with Fatah and again become part of the central government in the West Bank.
"We’ve asked both parties to initiate negotiations so they can discuss the initiative and its points and agree on the implementation," Yemen’s Foreign Minister Dr. Abu Bakir Al-Qirbi told The Media Line.
If an agreement does emerge from the initiative, Yemen will have succeeded where other power brokers such as Egypt seem to have failed.
"I suppose it’s because Yemen is considered by both Hamas and Fatah to be an honest broker," Al-Qirbi says. Yemen does not have factional persuasions, but is genuinely concerned for the interests of the Palestinians, he says.
Fatah’s main bone of contention with the agreement is that it does not require Hamas to relinquish control over Gaza before entering into negotiations. The signing of the agreement caused a rift within the ranks of Fatah, a dispute angrily fought out through the media.
Ghazi Hammad, a Hamas official and former spokesman for the Hamas government in Gaza, says Fatah need not worry about Hamas retaining control there.
"Frankly, we believe in one government, one authority and one security system and we don’t want to control Gaza forever," he says.
But some suggest Hammad expresses a moderation that does not represent the prevailing desire in Hamas.
The problem is that turning back the clock to exactly the way things were is virtually impossible, Hammad says.
"Hamas says, ‘how can we go back?’ Many changes have been made on the ground over the last 10 months so we have to deal with the facts on the ground," he adds.
Fei’sal Abu Shahla, a Fatah member of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), says returning to the pre-June situation should be a prerequisite for implementing any other steps.
He reckons Hamas is trying to manipulate the implementation of this first step in order to lay the groundwork for gaining more power.
They say they want negotiations, but on the ground they are swiftly acting to cement their control in Gaza, Abu Shahla says.
"They are changing things drastically in Gaza, controlling everything, the ministries, the police, the Executive Force and they’re still arresting people because of their political background."
Since Hamas institutions in the West Bank have been revised and monitored to make them more transparent, Hamas would like a return to the pre-June situation so these restrictions on its institutions will be lifted, he said.
Another sticky issue is whether Hamas would be part of any future government once a deal is struck, and if so, how this would affect future negotiations with Israel.
Paradoxically, the Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip last year made it easier for Israel to resume negotiations with the Palestinians. As long as Hamas, which does not recognize Israel, was part of the unity government, Israel refused to speak with any of its members, whether from Hamas or not.
Once the Islamist organization split away and retained its own isolated government in Gaza, a new government backed by ‘Abbas was formed in the West Bank. The new cabinet included no Hamas representatives at all, making it a trouble-free partner for peace negotiations.
"As far as we’re concerned, if Hamas goes back to becoming part of the legal leadership in Judea and Samaria it will be very bad," says Yitzhak Ben-Yisrael, a member of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, and of its Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
"Israel will only be prepared to speak with a government if that government is prepared to speak with Israel, the way that Abu Mazen is today willing to discuss an agreement to end the conflict," he says.
Since Hamas won the legislative elections in 2006 and dominated the PLC, the organization has refused to fall into line with international demands to recognize Israel, acknowledge previously signed agreements and renounce violence.
But from the Palestinian perspective, it is likely that Hamas will become part of any future government for the sake of national unity, even if the negotiations with Israel suffer as a result.
"Israel is not taking the negotiations seriously," Abu Shahla says. "If there is a national unity government, this is a Palestinian affair and it shouldn’t affect the negotiations with Israel. We feel Israel is always looking for excuses to escape its commitments to the peace process."
Creating a strong unity government is the top priority at the moment, he says.
Yemeni foreign minister Al-Qirbi agrees that whether any reconciliation agreement helps or hinders talks with Israel depends on Israeli policy makers.
"The reality among many European countries is that Hamas can’t be excluded from any solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict," he says. "If [Israel] is sincere about a peace settlement they should welcome the renegotiations between Hamas and Fatah so that a strong Palestinian administration is established to control the Palestinian territories. This will lead to the security of both a Palestinian state and Israel."
The view from Washington on the Yemen initiative has been cautious. U.S. officials declined to provide a response to the Yemen agreement.
Analysts say that although the U.S. has taken a tough stand regarding Hamas in the past, the Bush administration is modifying its approach to the organization by encouraging parties such as Egypt to engage the group if it means saving the peace efforts in the region. The U.S. is gradually realizing there will be no peace if Hamas is excluded, they say.