Tensions Mount between Current and Former Yemeni Leaders
SANA'A – As February’s presidential election looms and Yemen prepares to move forward with a United Nations-backed power-transfer deal, the disputes between the nation’s current leader and his immediate predecessor have escalated in full view of the public.
While President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi has criticized the previous administration’s mishandling of Yemen’s wealth, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh accused Hadi of opening Yemen’s skies to American drones without any restrictions. The US has used the unmanned aircraft to hit terror cells connected with Al-Qa’ida.
In an interview with Yemen Today Channel, Saleh said Hadi has failed to protect Yemen’s sovereignty.
Hadi, who acted as Saleh’s vice president from 1994 to 2012, hit back at his predecessor. He charged that the same people now crying foul about Yemen’s autonomy are the ones who originally signed a deal with the United States government in 2001 giving America the green light to target terrorists in Yemen.
US drone strikes have sharply increased in recent years. Though there is disagreement over the exact number — the Associated Press counted 40 while Yemen's National Organization for Defending Rights and Freedoms recorded 81 — human rights organizations, the press and other observers agree that such attacks reached a record high in 2012.
But the dispute between Hadi and Saleh goes far beyond American military action in Yemeni airspace.
“Saleh and Hadi have not been seeing eye-to-eye since the latter took office last year,” Dr. Abdulbaqi Shamsan, a political sociology professor at Sana'a University told The Media Line.
Media reports indicate that the political conflict is now escalating over the leadership of the General People Congress Party (GPC), which was founded by Saleh in the 1980s.
As Hadi attempts to extend his transitional term as president, Saleh is lobbying within the GPC, which he has led since its foundation, to nominate a new face as the party’s presidential candidate in the coming election instead of Hadi.
“Saleh remains an obstacle standing in the way of transition and change,” Abdulghani Al-Eryani, a political analyst, told The Media Line. “I don't find it strange whatsoever that such conflict is raging between [Saleh and Hadi] because the former is undermining the latter's authority and thwarting his efforts.”
With talks stalled at the National Dialogue Conference (NDC), which is a central part of the power-transfer deal that saw Saleh relinquish control after 33 years in office, the likelihood of Hadi lengthening his stay as transitional president seems high.
The NDC talks, during which representatives from almost all walks of Yemeni life have come together to try to resolve the nation’s many challenges, will be followed by rewriting the constitution and holding a presidential election, according to the power-transfer agreement, which is supported by the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The discussions were slated to finish this month, but delegates have not yet reached key decisions regarding the form of government and how to ameliorate longstanding issues, so the conference will most likely be extended.
Political analyst Mohammed Shamsan said the former president is manufacturing disputes event though NDC delegates generally agreed to extend the period of Hadi’s transitional rule from three to five years.
“Saleh is trying to disrupt the political process and disturb the political climate,” Shamsan said, “thinking he can get his hands on power again.”
The previous leader is emboldened by recent events in Egypt and the fact that regional powers like the United Arab Emirates are backing counter-Arab Spring revolutions, says Abdusalam Mohammed, chairman of the Abaad Studies and Research Center, a political non-profit licensed by Yemen’s Social Affairs Ministry.
While Saleh pushes for someone loyal to him as the GPC’s presidential candidate — someone who will preserve his huge interests and influence in the country — Hadi continues to undermine that political capital by sacking Saleh’s relatives and loyalists from top military positions.
Saleh likely hopes his eldest son, Ahmed, will run for president. But last year, Hadi dismissed the younger Saleh from his post at the helm of the Yemeni army’s elite unit, the Republican Guard, and reassigned him as the country’s ambassador to UAE.
Yet even after Hadi dismissed Ahmed and other relatives from the highest positions in Yemen’s armed forces, the former president retains loyal generals.
“Saleh is still very influential in the Yemeni political arena through his position as the president of the GPC, which holds half of the National Unity Government's seats and is represented by a large number of delegates at the NDC,” Mohammed said.
The other experts agreed with Mohammed, warning that Saleh's massive fortune and wide network of patronage and contacts, in addition to the loyalist military generals, make him very powerful and capable of disrupting the international community's efforts toward a peaceful transfer of power.
Home to Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which Washington considers to be the most dangerous cell of the global terror network, Yemen faces several economic and security challenges, including a separatist movement in the south and a Shiite Muslim insurgency in the far north.
Located near one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, through which around 3 million barrels of oil pass daily, the United States and the entire international community have worked hard to back the political process and prevent the country from plunging into civil conflicts and becoming a failed state in which AQAP can thrive and plan attacks on Western interests.
Professor Shamsan thinks the power transfer deal should have included a provision preventing Saleh from playing any future political role, a perspective shared by the other analysts.
“Now that such a stipulation was not included in the deal, the sponsors of the power transfer deal should force Saleh to stay out of politics,” Shamsan said.