Russia is walking a fine line between Damascus, Jerusalem and Tehran
The chief of Russia’s Military Police Directorate, Vladimir Ivanovsky, was in Israel over the weekend to discuss an expected major Syrian regime-led offensive to retake rebel-held territory in the Golan Heights. Ivanovsky, who oversees Russian forces deployed in Syria’s southern “de-escalation” regions, was set to meet senior IDF officers to coordinate—in accordance with a tacit understanding between Jerusalem and Moscow—the withdrawal of all Shiite troops operating under Iranian control, including Hizbullah members, close to Israel’s border.
An IDF spokesperson wrote in an email to The Media Line that Ivanovsky met with the Commander of the IDF Military Police, but declined to comment on the nature of their conversation.
The effective buffer zones were established last year by a U.S.-Russia-Jordan-brokered truce deal and, ever since, there has been minimal fighting along the frontier. Now, however, pro-Assad forces, emboldened by their recent consolidation of control over the capital Damascus, are eyeing re-asserting military dominance in the south.
Evidencing the seriousness of the matter, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, with the Kremlin thereafter issuing a statement outlining the leaders’ agreement to ensure security along the Israeli-Syrian border. The Netanyahu-Putin phone call came amid reports that Assad’s army, along with its allies, had started bombarding rebels in southwestern Deraa.
Meanwhile, the wild card in developments is Washington, which only reiterated a warning to take “firm and appropriate measures” in response to any violations of the ceasefire in the “de-escalation” zones.
“Allowing Iran to establish itself in Syria would be profoundly dangerous for Israel,” according to Dan Schueftan, Director of the National Security Center at Haifa University and a former adviser to Israeli prime ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon. “If [Tehran] can establish a base [in Syria], tens of thousands—even hundreds of thousands—of Iranian rockets [could be stationed there].”
“Israel will stop this,” he qualified to The Media Line, “[for the government] this is a commitment.”
Indeed, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated ahead of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday that Jerusalem would strike Iranian military assets throughout Syria, and not just those located near the border.
Meanwhile, Scheuftan stressed, “[Russia’s] interest is to preserve the Assad regime and will not interfere if Israel hits Iranian targets.” In fact, Moscow views Iran’s ongoing presence in Syria as a possible destabilizing factor, especially in the event of a full-blown war with Israel.
Aglaya Snetkov, a Senior Researcher at ETH Zurich, believes that President Putin is nevertheless walking a tight rope. “The Russians will likely not interfere as Israel probably won’t directly target Assad’s regime in Damascus,” she explained to The Media Line.
As regards the potential involvement of Jordan, which likewise shares a border with Syria, the seven-years-long conflict has created major economic and humanitarian problems for the kingdom. Amman has also conducted air strikes in rebel-held regions in southern Syria in conjunction with a U.S.-led coalition.
Even though Jordan is equally concerned about Shi’ite fighters operating within range of its border, collaboration between the Arab country and Israel is unlikely.
“Militarily, [the Israeli army] doesn’t need Jordan and, politically, it would not be helpful for Amman to be directly aligned with Israel,” said Schueftan.
(David Lee is a Student Intern in The Media Line’s Press and Policy Student Program)