Talks in Geneva to resolve the nine-month war in Yemen have adjourned with no substantive progress, frustrating U.N. intermediaries, while leaving the two warring armies, the Saudi-led Sunni Arab Coalition and the Shi’ite Houthis, as intransigent as ever.
Greeted initially with optimism, the talks were probably doomed from the outset, leaving Yemen’s twenty-five million citizens, many of whom have lost jobs, homes and loved ones in a war they don’t understand, the biggest losers.
Agreement was reached on an exchange of prisoners and a pledge by the two sides to distribute food aid which had been piling up near the embattled Houthi rebel-held highland city of Taiz, close to Aden and the Red Sea.
However, talks on a permanent truce faltered as did implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216 on the withdrawal of the Houthis, who despite severe losses in men and territory, refuse to concede defeat and surrender their heavy weapons.
Khalid Muhammed Al-Weshali, a prominent Houthi spokesman, told The Media Line that the Houthis’ main demand is that Saudi-backed President Abd Rabbou Mansur Hadi be replaced by his Vice-President and Prime Minister Khaled Bahah.
The lack of progress on substantive issues should have come as no surprise. After the first round of talks of what came to be known as “Geneva 2” and again during a speech at a special session of the Security Council in New York last Tuesday, UN envoy Ismail Weld el-Sheikh said the road to peace in Yemen would be much longer and bumpier than previously anticipated.
Ambassador el-Sheikh confirmed that talks would resume January 14, adding that while there is almost complete agreement by the two sides on what is necessary to achieve a stable ceasefire, mutual lack of trust bedevils its implementation.
A few days before the talks began, the Houthis, along with army forces loyal to deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh, intensified operations on the Yemeni-Saudi border and even captured territory in the Saudi provinces of Najran and Asir with which they hoped to pressure the Saudis into halting air strikes against them and leverage Bahah into the presidency.
The strategy failed to budge the Saudis. Involvement of other powerful Arab state actors further complicates the situation. Egypt and the United Arab Emirates support the General People’ Congress (GPC), Yemen’s most powerful political party, headed by Saleh. Qatar supports the Islah Party, the second most powerful party, which sponsors powerful militias all over Yemen. Saudi Arabia supports anyone who opposes the Houthis and Saleh, their ally. Other coalition countries are ostensibly neutral but their actions generally harm the Houthis and Saleh’s interests.
The government delegation to the talks has several advantages. Hadi is back in Aden, near Taiz, which has raised the morale of his troops who now control seventy percent of Yemen, up from ten percent when talks began. His delegation is also helped by opposition to the Houthis from several political groups in Yemen. Finally, the coalition’s relentless air strikes have weakened the Houthis on several fronts.
The Shi’ite Houthis have few remaining bargaining cards but try to exploit the growing influence of the Sunni terrorist groups ISIL and Al-Qaeda in the south to show that Hadi’s government is incapable of protecting Yemen’s citizens. They can also stonewall the talks if they do not get their way. Furthermore, while the UN and the coalition can impose sanctions on the GPC, they cannot use the same method with the Houthis, who have no political or international standing. All they can do is fight them, which they are already doing.
The lack of trust between the two sides is aggravated by the perception of the Houthi-CGP forces that the Saudi coalition troops are invaders; thus their Yemeni collaborators are traitors to the people. Neither side has respected previous ceasefires whenever an opportunity to consolidate positions has presented itself. The coalition claims that the Houthis have shelled civilians, forcing it to resume air strikes. A few hours before a recent ceasefire took effect anti-Houthi resistance fighters, backed up by coalition forces, seized certain areas that had been under Houthi control. In retaliation, Houthi troops fired several missiles into Saudi Arabia which the Saudis said they shot down with their U.S.-built Patriot anti-missile system.
While Ambassador el-Sheikh at the U.N. is currently trying to persuade both sides to establish a ceasefire implementation mechanism, the coalition and its allies are intensifying efforts to reach the capital, Sana’a. However, like the Houthis in the Saudi border areas, they have difficulty consolidating their hold on territory they capture and are unlikely to reach Sana’a anytime soon.
As for the foreign aid, it is not clear if the emergency supplies in the Taiz region, which has been besieged for months, has reached its intended destinations. Local journalists in Taiz say some areas have seen no supplies at all.
The war seems destined to take its own course. Between Geneva 1 and Geneva 2 the Houthis, who controlled ninety percent of Yemen, right now control no more than thirty percent. But this does not mean the war will soon be over. The Houthis can drag on this war of attrition for years to come.