4th Election in 2 Years Looming but Israel’s Political Landscape Markedly Changed
The shifting sands of Israel’s parliament mean the coming election cycle may offer a different result
Less than 72 hours before the Knesset, or parliament, is automatically dissolved, Israel’s political scene on Sunday was all aflutter, with last-ditch negotiations and desperate proposals lobbed by both parties heading the fractured government, leading some lawmakers to predict elections might be avoided after all.
Yet odds remain high that Israeli citizens will head to the polls in three months, for the fourth time in two years. In all likelihood, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz, though both facing an uphill battle at the polls, will not reach a last-minute understanding and will fail to sign an agreement extending the current parliament’s life span.
Though less than a year has passed since the last cycle, the coming elections, which likely would be held in late March, will feature an entirely different political landscape.
No less than six new parties so far have been formed or have separated from existing parties since the last election go-around, and several other parties are expected to be established if new elections are indeed announced on Tuesday.
The most notable and consequential change was the one that enabled the current government to form – the split in the Blue and White party, which saw Gantz’s partners Yair Lapid and Moshe Yaalon leave him when Gantz decided to join forces with Netanyahu after the third consecutive election stalemate in March 2020.
For the next election, Lapid will once again lead the Yesh Atid party which he formed in 2012, and which he united with Benny Gantz’s political movement for the short-lived, yet successful, Blue and White experiment.
Gantz, after reaching historical highs in the recent three elections and topping Netanyahu in the number of parliament seats gained, while failing to actually unseat the prime minister, seems headed to political oblivion, as voters have refused to forgive his joining hands with the man he vowed to topple. Recent polls show him netting close to zero seats, and Sunday’s last gasp round of negotiations will only serve to diminish these already dismal numbers.
You can stay neutral; you can sit this cycle out in terms of supporting a candidate for prime minister. But don’t back Netanyahu who has hurt our people perhaps more than any other politician in history
Another tiny offshoot of the once powerful Blue and White party is Derech Eretz, which also splintered from the mothership after the latest elections but unlike Yesh Atid, chose to join the government instead of heading to the opposition. While remaining loyal to Gantz and coordinating policy with his bloc, the miniscule party — which consists of only two lawmakers — last week announced it had found a new political home, joining right-wing politician Gideon Saar.
Saar represents the only major change in parliament’s right wing. A longtime lawmaker in Netanyahu’s Likud party, and a personal rival of the prime minister, announced that he would form a new party two weeks ago, promising to challenge Netanyahu and not sit with him in future governments.
Saar was promptly joined by Derech Eretz and several other Likud lawmakers, and in the coming weeks is expected to unveil the rest of his castmates, including the possible addition of former military general chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot, rumored to be contemplating entering politics.
To the right of Saar, voters in the coming election can choose Naftali Bennett, a longtime loyal ally of Netanyahu who was cast aside during the current government’s formation. Bennett’s Yamina party gained popularity while straddling the opposition benches in recent months, lobbing darts at the prime minister and his cabinet for their failed pandemic response.
Yet the surprise entrance of Saar has quickly sapped support for Bennett from center-right voters, and he is again nearing single digits in public opinion polls.
Back to the center-left, or what is left of it: The once proud Labor party, for decades the most powerful movement in Israel which almost single-handedly established the Jewish state, has disappeared from the face of the political scene.
In the latest cycle, Labor joined hands with the more progressive Meretz party, but quickly split after Election Day, instead jumping in bed with Gantz and Netanyahu in return for ministerial positions. Currently numbering only two seats, the party is projected to sink alongside the remnants of Gantz’s Blue and White in March.
“Labor is dying because we’ve given up on trying to persuade voters,” said Eitan Cabel, a former minister with the party.
“Instead of trying to convince constituents on the other side of the aisle to vote for us, instead of drafting policies, instead of focusing on branding, we’re waiting for a general to come and be our savior. That’s not going to cut it,” Cabel told The Media Line, referring to Gantz, Gabi Ashkenazi, Ehud Barak, Amram Mitzna and the slew of former military generals and commanders in chief who have assumed leadership of the center-left in past years.
“Our last two chairmen, [Avi] Gabay and [Amir] Peretz, were outstanding undertakers,” he said. “But it’s not just their fault.”
Cabel explained that the once reliable fault lines of left and right have vanished, thanks to the sole issue of Netanyahu remaining in office, which has presented voters with two distinct, exclusive options.
“He’s thrown the entire political system out of whack,” Cabel said of the prime minister, who is facing criminal charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three criminal cases against him. Netanyahu “discombobulated the entire scene. People’s hatred for him drove them out of their minds, and they are now willing to vote for right-wing extremists like Bennett and Saar just to get rid of him.”
Labor is dying because we’ve given up on trying to persuade voters
Several candidates are expected to try to pick up the pieces of the once proud Israeli left wing. The parade of names includes familiar ones such as former foreign minister and prime ministerial candidate Tzipi Livni; current mayor of Tel Aviv Ron Huldai; Meretz lawmaker and former general Yair Golan; and Yair Lapid’s former right-hand man and second in command of Yesh Atid, Ofer Shelah.
The latter has challenged his once close friend’s persistent refusal to cooperate politically with the Arab members of parliament, claiming the left’s only hope of reassuming power is to acknowledge the representatives of 20% of Israel’s population and join together with them in the Knesset.
Yet it remains unclear how much of the Joint Arab List will be left after the coming elections. After garnering an historic 15 seats in the last round, the party seems headed for separation, as the four factions making up the group have signaled they will not remain united much longer.
Mansour Abbas, who heads the United Arab List, one of the four parties making up the Joint Arab List, has in recent weeks made surprising overtures to Netanyahu himself. Abbas has said he will not rule out voting for a bill granting Netanyahu retroactive immunity for his crimes, if he believes he can procure funds and laws benefiting the Arab community in return.
The move has outraged Abbas’ partners, who accuse Netanyahu of racism and of continued discrimination against the Arab community and have ruled out any cooperation with him.
“Theoretically, Abbas is right. The Arab population has been in the left wing’s pocket for more than 70 years. When you’re in politics that long and you have no alternative to partner with, you’re going be taken for granted,” Prof. Aziz Haidar, a research fellow at the Hebrew University’s Harry S. Truman Research Institute and the Van Leer Jerusalem Institute, told The Media Line.
But Haidar, who studies the Israeli-Arab community’s middle-class sector and its political potential, insists that partnering with Netanyahu should not be an option.
“You can stay neutral; you can sit this cycle out in terms of supporting a candidate for prime minister. But don’t back Netanyahu who has hurt our people perhaps more than any other politician in history,” he said.
The in-house bickering among Arab lawmakers has led to a noticeable dip in support for the Joint List.
“They are headed for a split, I think it’s inevitable,” Haidar said of the four parties.
Despite the many shifts and changes, some things in the political sphere remain the same. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu will run unchanged in the coming elections, as will the Likud, headed by Netanyahu, minus the party defectors. The ultra-Orthodox parties also have remained intact, with the candidates being chosen by a committee of rabbis and elders.
After a one-year hiatus, Israel is once again hurtling toward contentious, consequential, and — in all likelihood — inconclusive elections. It’s déjà vu, all over again.
