A week before the January 20 inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following Trump’s vague warning that there will be “all hell to pay” if Israeli hostages held in Gaza are not released by that date.
Trump has refused to clarify his statement, and although many in Israel believe his threat targets Hamas—the terrorist organization holding the hostages—the reality could be more complex.
Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Israel on Saturday, reportedly to finalize a deal before the inauguration. His visit, which included a meeting with Netanyahu, followed a stop in Qatar, Hamas’ key supporter and a mediator in the ongoing talks.
It’s no coincidence that Witkoff is in the region, probably making offers neither side can refuse
“In many ways, the Trump era has already begun, even before January 20,” political analyst Professor Avraham Diskin told The Media Line. “It’s no coincidence that Witkoff is in the region, probably making offers neither side can refuse. Trump means business. The question is whether he can deliver.”
Israel is also maintaining a fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah on its northern border with Lebanon. This truce ended over a year of hostilities after the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group joined Hamas in attacking Israel. The ceasefire is set to expire a week after Trump’s inauguration. While Israeli officials have expressed dissatisfaction with its enforcement, there is hesitance to resume fighting. Israel’s military is already stretched thin, and Netanyahu is focused on a larger target—Iran.
“The Trump administration might push Israel to make sacrifices on both Gaza and Lebanon in order to cooperate with Israel on the more distant front, which is Iran,” said Diskin. “It’s hard to imagine Trump’s moves aren’t coordinated with Netanyahu. But Israeli stubbornness on Hamas could jeopardize US-Israel collaboration on Iran. It’s a tough decision.”
Israel views Iran’s nuclear program as its most critical existential threat.
During Trump’s previous term, his administration’s pro-Israel stance and policies created friction with much of the international community over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His hard-line position on Iran fuels Israeli hopes that the US might greenlight an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, Israeli defense officials have stated that Israel plans to intensify pressure on Hamas once Trump takes office. This reflects Netanyahu’s strained relationship with outgoing President Joe Biden. Israeli officials accuse President Biden of limiting Israel’s ability to pressure Hamas, especially by insisting on the continued flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
As long as they are holding the hostages, what more military pressure can be put on them?
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“In practical military terms, it is not clear what the difference is going to be,” Michael Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to the US, told The Media Line. “Israel has found that its belief that the way to pressure Hamas into releasing the hostages by ratcheting up the military pressure actually resulted in Hamas executing them. As long as they are holding the hostages, what more military pressure can be put on them?”
Israel’s war in Gaza has caused severe Palestinian casualties. According to Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry, over 46,000 Palestinians have been killed. This figure does not distinguish between militants and civilians, while Israel claims many of the dead are Hamas fighters. UN data shows nearly 90% of Gaza’s population has been displaced multiple times due to Israeli military operations, with entire neighborhoods reduced to rubble by airstrikes.
On Friday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the military to prepare plans for the “complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza” if ceasefire negotiations fail.
“There are areas in Gaza, about 40% including major refugee camps, which Israel has not entered because of the fear of harming hostages being held there,” said Oren. “One of the big questions is: Does Israel risk harming the hostages?”
Throughout the war, which has entered its 16th month this January, the Biden administration has threatened to cut security aid to Israel over Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Some US weapons shipments were delayed in an effort to pressure Israel to allow more aid into the territory. Israel accuses Hamas of seizing and diverting aid for its own purposes, depriving civilians.
“There has been no leverage on Hamas regarding the aid,” Oren noted, expressing confidence that Trump will apply less pressure on Netanyahu about humanitarian assistance.
In addition to calls to restrict Gaza aid, there are growing demands within Israel to intensify military operations in the territory. In recent weeks, the Israeli army has escalated attacks in Gaza. On Saturday, four Israeli soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb in northern Gaza, capping a difficult week marked by heavy losses.
Netanyahu is under intense domestic pressure. His political bloc demands an expanded war effort against Hamas to secure the release of Israeli hostages while maintaining a military presence in Gaza. Some in his coalition even advocate for Israeli resettlement and permanent occupation of Gaza. Conversely, the opposition urges ending the war to secure the hostages’ release.
Hamas remains firm in its demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a full cessation of hostilities.
At the war’s outset, Netanyahu vowed to eliminate Hamas’ rule in Gaza and free all hostages. These objectives, which somewhat conflict, remain unachieved.
On Sunday, Israeli media reported that Netanyahu planned to meet with far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich amid reports of a possible hostage deal. Netanyahu also directed the head of Mossad to travel to Qatar as talks showed progress. Smotrich previously warned against a “reckless” deal, and his party’s withdrawal could collapse the government.
The opposition accuses Netanyahu of stalling a deal to preserve his political power.
Netanyahu’s political survival and legacy are deeply important to him. But Israel’s security is also a core consideration.
“Netanyahu’s political survival and legacy are deeply important to him,” Diskin said. “But Israel’s security is also a core consideration.”
Since Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza began, 400 Israeli soldiers have been killed. Last week, hundreds of soldiers’ parents signed a letter accusing Netanyahu of prolonging the war for political gain. Aside from the initial weeks of shock after Hamas’ surprise attack, weekly protests have persisted, calling for Netanyahu’s resignation and a ceasefire.
The war began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise attack that killed about 1,200 Israelis and wounded thousands. Hamas took 250 hostages; over 100 were released during a temporary truce. Some hostages’ bodies have been recovered, and a few were rescued alive. Ninety-eight Israelis, some with dual American citizenship, remain in captivity—many presumed dead.
Within Netanyahu’s coalition, senior figures, including Smotrich, have threatened to resign if a ceasefire-hostage deal prevents Israel from continuing its fight against Hamas. While polls show majority support for a ceasefire, they also indicate strong backing for the government, reducing Netanyahu’s political risk.
“Netanyahu has withstood tremendous pressure—from the home front, from Washington and from the international arena,” said Oren. “At times he has given in—on humanitarian aid, on delaying certain operations in Gaza, but ultimately he has prevailed.”
With Trump’s inauguration nearing, Netanyahu faces another critical decision that could alter the war’s trajectory, though it is unlikely to end the conflict.
“When facing an enemy openly committed to Israel’s destruction,” Diskin said, “this could be a war lasting a thousand years.”