Ankara, Riyadh Announce Increased Cooperation as Erdogan Grapples With Economic Crisis

Turkey’s president trying to warm ties with several countries in the region in bid to woo investment

[Istanbul] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in a joint statement in Ankara late Wednesday, announced plans to increase bilateral cooperation.

It is the prince’s first visit to Turkey since being accused of ordering the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist and Saudi national, in Istanbul more than three years ago.

The two countries will work together on trade, investment and regional issues to increase stability, and increase flights between them.

Erdogan greeted and embraced Prince Mohammed in a ceremony in Ankara that was televised live.

The visit to Turkey was the last leg of a regional trip for the prince that included stops in Egypt and Jordan.

Erdogan said before the visit that the meeting was aimed at advancing relations, something he attempted with his own visit to Saudi Arabia in April.

Relations with Saudi Arabia plummeted in October 2018 when Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post, went missing after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

US intelligence blamed Prince Mohammed for ordering the murder of the journalist and Erdogan said “the highest levels of the Saudi government” were to blame for his death, but did not mention the crown prince by name.

In the days after Khashoggi’s disappearance, international media converged on the Saudi consulate as anonymous sources within the Turkish government continually leaked additional details of how they said the journalist had been killed.

Journalists were later invited back to the area around the consulate for the unveiling of a symbolic tombstone for Khashoggi, with the event attended by Jeff Bezos, owner of The Washington Post.

The leaks and the attention paid to the Saudi consulate helped Erdogan put major pressure on his Saudi rivals.

They will look to exploit Turkey’s weakness

Three-and-a-half-years later, that tombstone is surrounded by weeds, and security officials at the consulate won’t allow pictures to be taken.

The Turkish president is now in a much different position.

Erdogan has been seeking investment from other countries amid an economic crisis in the Anatolian nation where the official inflation rate is reported at 70%, and the Turkish lira lost 44% of its value last year and another 23% so far in 2022.

A group of independent economists say the real inflation figure is 160%.

The bad economic news has hit Erdogan’s approval rating and put into question his chances of returning to office and holding onto his parliamentary majority in national elections that are due next year but could take place earlier.

“He had to throw the towel in,” said Timothy Ash, an economist focused on Turkey, who added that the visit came down to Erdogan’s need for money.

“It’s as simple as that. He needs cash, a lot of it and as much as he can get,” Ash told The Media Line.

Erdogan’s need for investment, especially ahead of the campaign season, meant he was looking to work with wealthy countries, and the only realistic options were the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the economist said.

Ash believes the Saudis will look to buy assets in Turkey at a low price, to take advantage of the country’s poor economy and desperation for funds.

“They will look to exploit Turkey’s weakness,” Ash said.

He added that Riyadh wants to end the rivalry with Turkey and accepted that Erdogan has given up on some of his fights for regional influence, such as through support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Ryan Bohl, a Middle East and North Africa analyst with RANE/Stratfor, said Saudi Arabia wants to project an image of itself as not causing conflict abroad and move past Prince Mohammed’s early years.

That’s a stance that Ankara seems to accept.

“It’s enormously important from a symbolic level: Not only is Erdogan saying the assassination doesn’t matter, he’s also dropping the direct personal competition he was having with [the crown prince] in favor of cooperation,” Bohl told The Media Line.

He added that Erdogan is also hoping for a defense deal, including possibly a sale of the Bayraktar drone that has become famous after Ukraine’s successful use of it against the Russian invasion.

Turkey could be an attractive arms seller for Saudi Arabia because Ankara is not concerned about how its weapons are used, in contrast to Washington, Bohl said.