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Assad Is Incapable of Controlling Iran in Syria, Expert Says
Aleppo International Airport in a February 19, 2020 photo. (AFP via Getty Images)

Assad Is Incapable of Controlling Iran in Syria, Expert Says

The international airport in Aleppo is out of service due to an alleged Israeli attack to stop another Iranian weapon delivery; Damascus may be unhappy, but it can’t do anything about it

The roar of aircraft filled the night sky over Aleppo on Tuesday, as several missiles hit the city’s international airport, putting it out of commission. It was the second air attack in Syria in the last week attributed to Israel’s ongoing military campaign to stop the delivery of advanced weapons from Iran for local militias. It is also the second time in the span of several months that Aleppo’s airport has been bombed and put out of service.

The consistency of the attacks and the targeting of airports could indicate an escalation in Israel’s efforts to stop Iran from establishing a military footprint in Syria, according to experts.

“It’s not just the last attack in Aleppo. We are seeing a general change of pattern in this ongoing battle, which is focused on airports. It started with an attack on the Damascus Airport,” Carmit Valensi, head of the Syria program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Media Line.

“There are a few reasons for this change. The first one is that weapons deliveries from Iran continue, and the airports are being used for them. This means that the Aleppo airport is no longer a civil infrastructure,” she explained, calling it an “Israeli message” to Syrian President Bashar Assad; namely, “if you let Iran have a free hand and use Syrian civil infrastructures, there will be a price to it.”

It’s a war. Iran is trying to transfer dangerous materials and game-changer weapons to local militias, including Hizbullah, to pressure Israel.

The reason for these alleged Israeli attacks in Syria, however, is not just to send a message to Assad.

“It’s a war. Iran is trying to transfer dangerous materials and game-changer weapons to local militias, including Hizbullah, to pressure Israel,” Zvi Magen, a senior research fellow at INSS, and a former Israeli diplomat, told The Media Line.

“Iran is trying to surround Israel with missiles and rockets, in what is known as the Shiite crescent, and threaten it. Israel is trying to achieve two things: one is to intercept these deliveries. The second is to send a message that it has a bright intelligence picture” and can deter Iran from attempting further weapon deliveries, he said.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based international organization that monitors events in Syria, the latest attack on Aleppo left three dead, likely Iranians. Neither Iran or Syria has retaliated or threatened to do so, so far.

“The chance of casualties pulling Israel into a wider, unplanned escalation are low,” according to Magen. “These Iranian terror groups – IRGC (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Hizbullah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad – they are used to large-scale civilian casualties. They couldn’t care less about losing militants here and there, so it just doesn’t affect the stability in the area.”

Stopping Iranian activity in Syria, however, seems impossible, both for Assad and Israel.

“We hear occasionally that Assad is trying to hold Iran back from acting in Syria, but it’s too little and too late,” Valensi said. “Assad is incapable of controlling Iran in Syria, as his control of the country is very limited. He can’t afford an escalation with Israel, and Iran doesn’t want an escalation either – hence the complete lack of retaliations.”

“However, we know Iran is very persistent, and it will find a way to overcome these obstacles,” she added.

Israel’s Defense Ministry and the Israel Defense Forces refused to comment. Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its Defense Ministry did not respond to inquiries from The Media Line on the topic.

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