The Israeli cabinet will convene Tuesday evening in what is believed to be a meeting to approve a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas. The announcement comes after earlier reports of an imminent prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas had Israelis in a frenzy on Monday.
On the main television broadcasts, commentators speculated as to the details of the deal. How many hostages will be released? Will mothers be separated from their children? What will Israel give in return? Looming above all these questions was that of what impact such a deal would have on the continuation of the war between Israel and Hamas.
According to the Israeli military, there are currently 240 people being held hostage in the Gaza Strip. They have been there since Hamas’ surprise offensive on Israel on Oct. 7. Among the hostages are foreign nationals, Israelis with dual citizenship, soldiers, children, and elderly people.
Five of the hostages have been released since the beginning of the fighting. Four of them were released through international mediation by Qatar and one was rescued by Israeli troops in a ground operation in Gaza. Last week, the army recovered the body of another female soldier who was allegedly murdered by Hamas while in captivity.
“We don’t know anything. In fact, everything that is published in the media I regard as cooperation with the psychological terror that Hamas is inflicting on the families and the people of Israel,” Yael Engel Lichi, the aunt of 17-year-old Ofir Engel, who was kidnapped while visiting his girlfriend at Kibbutz Be’eri, told The Media Line. “I ask that each person reporting progress or no progress needs to close their eyes and imagine they are reporting about their own sons and daughters.”
“This is a nightmare for us, even without all these reports,” she added.
For the Palestinians, the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel is one of the main goals in their struggle against Israel. For Israel, the release of its captives, especially its soldiers, is a sensitive subject.
This time, most of the hostages are civilians, making the subject strike an even greater nerve. Pressure to strike a deal also stems from a Jewish religious commandment to return captives.
In the past, such intense political pressure paved the way for deals in which Israel released hundreds of prisoners in return for one or a few Israeli soldiers.
“One of the goals of Hamas’ massacre was also to create fear by abducting as many civilians and soldiers as possible,” Ido Zelkovitz, head of Middle East Studies at Yezreel Valley College and expert on Palestinian society and politics at the Chaikin Chair of Geostrategy at the University of Haifa, told The Media Line. “The hostages are viewed by Hamas as a strategic asset that is to be used in order to delay the fighting for as long as possible in order to create international pressure to completely stop the Israeli offensive before Hamas is overthrown.”
When embarking on the war, the Israeli government said it had two goals—toppling Hamas and releasing the hostages. Balancing the two is a difficult, if not impossible task, putting the families in constant tension and resulting in more pressure on the government.
“These are two parallel goals,” Zelkovitz said. “Without the toppling of Hamas, Israel will be exposed to various security threats that will include attempts to take more civilians and soldiers hostage in the future. The ultimate goal needs to be the restoring of Israel’s deterrence and the toppling of Hamas, this has implications on the other goals.”
Israel has been criticized by some for potentially agreeing to a cease-fire and entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza in exchange for the release of some of the hostages. Critics say that the deal could complicate Israel’s efforts to achieve its stated goals.
As reports of a pending deal circulated, the families were torn between hope and fear.
On Monday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of families of some of the hostages at the military headquarters in Tel Aviv. Initially, some of the relatives were denied entry into the meeting and were told that there was not sufficient room for them. This decision sparked a protest outside that overshadowed the meeting, which lasted for three hours. The meeting itself involved a heated debate.
“I expect the government to give priority to the goal of releasing the hostages,” Engel Lichi said. “Every day that passes, the hostages are in greater danger.”
Over the weekend, thousands of Israelis marched and held rallies in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, calling on Netanyahu and other cabinet ministers to reach a deal as soon as possible.
Former senior defense officials have argued that Israel should release all of the approximately 6,000 Palestinian prisoners it is holding in Israeli jails as part of a deal.
“Such a deal makes sense, but Hamas is not interested in such a deal,” Zelkovitz said. “Hamas wants to wear down Israel and use the hostages as an insurance policy for the survival of its regime.”
“Such a deal isn’t within Hamas’ interests because it will not end the military operation,” said Lt. Col. (res.) Moty Cristal, a lecturer on complex negotiations and crisis management and former deputy head of the Negotiation Management Center within the Prime Minister’s Office. “Hamas also needs the hostages as human shields.”
Hamas also claims it is not holding all of the prisoners that were taken to Gaza. Palestinian Islamic Jihad released a video that showed two of the hostages. Israeli media has reported some of the hostages might be held by other Palestinians not affiliated with any terrorist organization.
“Hamas is using this as an excuse,” Zelkovitz said of the claim that other organizations are holding some of the hostages. “By leaving loose ends, they are leaving Israel on edge.”
The indirect negotiations between the Israeli government and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar have been mediated by Qatar with American involvement.
“Negotiating with Sinwar does not necessarily guarantee the release of the hostages held by other organizations or Gaza warlords,” said Cristal, who was speaking at a video briefing for journalists.
As the details of the deal are being ironed out, it is unclear if all the hostages are alive or what condition they are in.
Hamas is also believed to be holding the bodies of two Israeli soldiers killed in the 2014 war between Hamas and Israel. One of those soldiers, Hadar Goldin, was killed in a Hamas attack that violated a cease-fire. In addition, two civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, are believed to be held in the Gaza Strip after straying there several years ago. The four have not been named in any of the public mentions of the current negotiations.
“Israel is taking a risk,” Zelkovitz said. “Any halt in the use of force could lead to a move by Hamas to influence international public opinion.”
Should there be a cease-fire, members of Hamas will likely be able to move with less restriction throughout the Gaza Strip. Journalists may be allowed freer access to the area and might therefore publicize images of Israel’s offensive, perhaps turning the international relations tide against Israel.
Freer access to journalists may be given and the images of the result of Israel’s massive offensive would emerge, perhaps turning the tide against Israel which is already under pressure to relent.
“Hamas needs this pause to rearrange its forces,” Cristal said. “This is clearly not an interest of the Israeli military, but it is the government in Israel which calls the shots and wants to see as many of the hostages released as possible.”
The deadly blow on Oct. 7 served as proof for many Israelis that the country’s strategy of deterrence has been damaged. The retaliation on Hamas is seen as an important step to restoring deterrence.
“Israel’s deterrence is not measured by the number of Palestinian prisoners it will release, but rather on the amount of firepower it is willing to use and the price it is willing to pay as it works to topple Hamas,” Zelkovitz said. “Israel’s enemies are watching.”
Any prisoner exchange deal will be a delicate one. If the release of the hostages and Palestinian prisoners is gradual and spread out over several days as reported, any deviation could lead to the collapse of the deal. A successful deal could also lead to the end of the fighting in Gaza, although Israeli officials rule out this possibility.
The coming days and hours will be very tense, both in Gaza and in Israel.