A six-week ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group expired over the weekend, raising questions about the future of the 16-month war that has engulfed the Middle East. The ceasefire was defined as the first phase towards ending the war and is now in its critical moments, either on the brink of collapse or at the cusp of extension.
Hamas has refused an American proposal to extend the ceasefire, demanding negotiations on the second phase of the deal as was initially agreed by the parties. The second phase would include a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the release of all the living remaining hostages currently in the hands of Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement minutes after the ceasefire expired, saying Israel had accepted an American offer to extend the first phase so that the lull in fighting would include the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish holiday of Passover. Steve Witkoff, the American special envoy to the Middle East, brought forward the proposal.
In response to Hamas’ refusal, Netanyahu’s office issued a statement Sunday morning announcing the cessation of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
“Israel will not allow a ceasefire without the release of our hostages,” the statement read. “If Hamas remains in its refusal, there will be further consequences.”
“Israel still faces the dilemma it has faced since the beginning of the war, and that is what to do about the hostages,” Former Israeli Ambassador to the United States Danny Ayalon told The Media Line. “What has changed is the steadfast support from the US and Israel is no longer hesitant to act against the Hamas regarding humanitarian aid and threaten with the resumption of the war.”
The US, Egypt, and Qatar mediated the agreement and attempted to reach a more permanent arrangement between the warring sides.
Fifty-nine out of 255 hostages that Hamas took in its surprise offensive carried out on October 7, 2023, remain in Gaza. At least 35 of the remaining hostages are believed to be dead. The offer to extend the truce would include the release of half of the living hostages on the first day of the truce and the rest when a permanent ceasefire is reached.
Thirty-eight hostages were released in the past six weeks as part of the first phase of the ceasefire. In return, Israel released almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and allowed for an increase in the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Israel has threatened to resume the fight against Hamas.
If Hamas changes its position, Israel will immediately enter negotiations on all of the details in the Witkoff proposal
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“If Hamas changes its position, Israel will immediately enter negotiations on all of the details in the Witkoff proposal,” Netanyahu’s office said. Israel cutting off aid to Gaza could be seen as an attempt to pressure the terrorist group into negotiating.
“Everything now depends on Trump and Witkoff,” Roni Rimon, a strategic adviser and partner at the public relations firm Rimon Cohen & Co., told The Media Line. “Israel is now at a major intersection at which it needs to decide whether it will make concessions and see the release of the hostages or insist on the continuation of the war and find creative solutions that will enable some sort of middle ground.”
Deep mistrust between the sides has led to the staggered nature of the deals, numerous crises throughout the ceasefire implementation, and a further lack of faith in the possibility of a stable future between them.
“For the current government, the staged method is convenient because it means it does not have to end the war,” said Rimon. “But eventually, this will lead to a dead end.”
At the onset of the war, Netanyahu laid out two major goals—the release of the hostages and the end of Hamas’ rule in Gaza. Hamas refuses to let go of its power in Gaza, and the hostages are its only bargaining chip after being severely hit by the Israeli military. Netanyahu and his political partners, while vowing to secure the release of all the hostages, rule out allowing Hamas to continue controlling the Gaza Strip.
The efforts to end the war have been ongoing throughout the lengthy war. There have been several occasions when it was believed a deal was about to be clinched, only to fall back into fighting. One of the main catalysts for the current ceasefire and the ability of Hamas and Israel to reach a middle ground was the change of administration in Washington. The pressure from US President Donald Trump to end the war and see the release of the hostages brought both sides to concessions.
On Friday, the Trump administration approved almost $4 billion in arms sales to Israel. The weapons, which also include 2000-pound bombs, were not approved by the previous administration led by former President Joe Biden.
“This will not be a game-changer because Hamas has shown little regard for loss of civilian life,” said Ayalon. “However, this could cause more damage in Gaza, which has already suffered a lot of damage and could lead to the loss of even more lives. This could serve as pressure in addition to the halt in humanitarian aid.”
Within the Israeli defense echelon, there was a consensus that the de facto American embargo severely hampered Israel’s ability to subdue Hamas. The Biden administration, on the other hand, raised concerns that Israel’s fight against Hamas was too costly in terms of civilian lives. According to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza, over 48,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s offensive.
Israel began the war against Hamas after the terror group stunned the Jewish state by carrying out an attack that killed approximately 1,200 Israelis on October 7, 2023, wounding thousands more in addition to the hostages that were taken into captivity. Under Biden, the White House also pressured Israel into increasing the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza amid the intense fighting.
“With the current US administration, Israel has more cards to play with, and should the fighting resume, it will likely be more intense and include the use of weapons that were not at its disposal previously,” Ayalon added.
Israeli media quoted defense officials on Sunday saying that the pause in humanitarian aid would not harm Hamas, which has managed to stock up on reserves in the weeks of the ceasefire.
“The pause will not have an immediate effect, but it shows a change in Israeli policy and unwillingness on the part of the government to make any compromises,” Ayalon said.
It is, however, telling that as the ceasefire officially ended, neither side was quick to resume fighting, each carefully analyzing its rival’s moves and intentions.
There may not be a game-changer in this conflict, While Israel may currently have the upper hand, we are nowhere near a knockout.
“There may not be a game-changer in this conflict,” said Ayalon. “While Israel may currently have the upper hand, we are nowhere near a knockout.”
Netanyahu’s political base does not support the cessation of the war effort against Hamas and is opposed to an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. President Trump has been vocal about his wish to see the war end and all the hostages released. With Hamas refusing to budge on its demands, the conflict is already at a dead end.
Netanyahu wants to have his cake and eat it, too; therefore, he is delaying major decisions for as long as he can
“Netanyahu wants to have his cake and eat it, too; therefore, he is delaying major decisions for as long as he can,” said Rimon.
The carte blanche he has from the Trump administration to operate in Gaza in any way he sees fit may not last forever. Even if the pressure is on Hamas, the pressure could easily be shifted onto Israel.