Thousands of dunams were set ablaze on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon on Tuesday, a result of missiles fired by the Hezbollah terrorist group. Many Israelis, especially residents of the north, voiced sharp criticism of the government. As they watched the fires, some thought Israel had given up on its northern frontier eight months after tensions with Hezbollah left the area largely deserted and severely battered. In the morning hours of Tuesday, firefighters continued to battle the fires as missiles were still being fired, sirens blasting the area. The major heatwave made the labor of putting out the fires an even greater one. Firefighting jets could not be used in the effort for fear of being targeted by Hezbollah rockets.
Tensions between Israel and the terrorist group have escalated since the Israel-Hamas war began in the country’s south on October 7. A day after the war in Gaza began, Hezbollah started launching rockets, mortars, and offensive drones into northern Israel. This ongoing offensive by Hezbollah has been met with retaliatory airstrikes and artillery fire from the Israeli military. In recent weeks, Hezbollah has increased its fire toward Israel.
Hezbollah is carefully studying Israel and is using more precise UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and anti-tank missiles in order to challenge Israel’s defense systems
“We are witnessing a gradual escalation,” said Avraham Levine, digital director for the Alma Research and Education Center, on Israel’s security challenges on its northern borders. “Hezbollah is carefully studying Israel and is using more precise UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and anti-tank missiles in order to challenge Israel’s defense systems.”
According to data accumulated by Alma, the month of May saw the highest number of Hezbollah attacks since the beginning of the war, with 325 attacks, the majority of them involving a number of missiles or UAVs.
Hezbollah has acknowledged the death of at least 285 of its members by Israeli attacks, while defense analysts believe the number is higher. On Monday, the Israeli military said it had killed a prominent Hezbollah terrorist in addition to targeting a building owned by the group.
For eight months since the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza began, over 60,000 residents of the north have been evacuated in the aftermath of Hamas’ attack in southern Israel. The fear was that Hezbollah would execute a similar scenario against Israel’s north, storming the border, killing thousands, and causing significant damage. Some people who live in areas that have not been evacuated by the state but are still adjacent to the fighting have decided to evacuate themselves without being compensated by the government. Others have remained in the area, sticking to their ground and homes. Many businesses have shut down, and public services have been reduced to a minimum. Residents have accused the government of abandoning them, and some have made plans to permanently relocate to other places in the country that are out of Hezbollah’s missile range.
Israel’s leadership has been facing a dilemma regarding the response to Hezbollah and has so far decided to contain the conflict. Both sides have operated under a silent agreement on the range of the fire and have largely avoided targeting civilian targets. But with many Israelis away from their homes and a large chunk of land deserted, some are demanding Israel adopt a tougher hand and initiate a massive offensive against one of its most formidable enemies.
Whatever Israel decides, it must change the rules of the game so that any presence of Hezbollah on the fence should be met with fire even at the risk of a greater conflict
“Whatever Israel decides, it must change the rules of the game so that any presence of Hezbollah on the fence should be met with fire even at the risk of a greater conflict,” said Dr. Harel Chorev from the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University. According to Chorev, Israel faces two options. It can either widen the cycle of violence by increasing the fire against Hezbollah, something that would likely include the use of ground forces, or it could focus on exhausting its operation in the Gaza Strip with the hopes that its conclusion would bring to a conclusion on Israel’s northern front as well.
“This would take more time and would increase the feeling of frustration and bitterness amongst Israelis,” Chorev told The Media Line.
Experts warn that Israel could face significant damage in a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah, given its arsenal of over 100,000 rockets.
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has vowed to continue his aggression against Israel so long as the war in Gaza continues, pledging to accompany Hamas in its struggle.
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Of the many residents evacuated, there are no numbers on how many intend to return. Unable to receive clear answers from the government, families have already made plans for the next school year elsewhere. In addition, there is a growing feeling that Israel has lost its deterrence.
The main goal is to see the return of the residents to the north
“The main goal is to see the return of the residents to the north,” Levine told The Media Line, “The question is how. I have never seen a viable diplomatic solution upheld with a terrorist organization, and previous attempts with international peacekeeping forces have achieved nothing.”
The UN Interim Force in Lebanon, which has been in Lebanon for decades, has not proven to be a forceful factor against Hezbollah’s menacing presence on Israel’s northern frontier.
Avital Kessler is a mother of five from the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona. She has been evacuated from her home since the beginning of the war. Her temporary residence in central Israel will no longer be available in the coming days, forcing her and her family to move to a hotel, after which she will seek another, more permanent solution. Her apartment was directly hit by a missile three weeks ago. It was then she first returned to the city since leaving it.
There is a profound sadness
“There is a profound sadness,” Kessler told The Media Line. “The feeling is that of an earthquake. How could this happen? Why is Hezbollah doing this to us, and where is our leadership that told us to leave for them to be able to do the job, to defend us? What are they doing?”
In an attempt to cause a strike, last week, the council head of the village of Margaliot, also adjacent to the border with Lebanon, said he would sever ties with the Israeli government that has abandoned the area.
We don’t need defense from Hezbollah. We need defense from our government.
“We don’t need defense from Hezbollah. We need defense from our government,” Eitan Davidi was quoted on several media outlets, calling Israeli soldiers to leave the village, claiming there was nothing left to defend there. It was another testament to the growing frustration in the population.
“I will return to my home; there is no other way, but I understand people who won’t,” said Kessler. “I’m looking for real safety, not some illusion. I want to see Israel defending itself, not just responding because responding means damage has already been done.”
But not everyone shares Kessler’s resolve.
“If residents won’t return, it will be like Israel is forfeiting its territory, and if people do return and nothing has changed, it will be under constant Hezbollah threat,” said Levine. “Abandoning the north would mean no tourism and no industry in the area.”
Hezbollah and Israel last engaged in war in 2006. It concluded with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, establishing a cease-fire and mandating the distancing of Hezbollah forces from the Israeli border—a resolution that was never implemented.
Before the war erupted, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel were high. A year ago, Hezbollah erected tents in the Ghajar area, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 War and annexed in 1981. Lebanon claims the small village of Ghajar belongs to it, leading to an ongoing dispute since the end of the 18-year Israeli military occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000. Envoys from the UN split Ghajar between Lebanon and Israel, but Israel reoccupied the northern half of the town during fighting with Hezbollah in 2006. Israel’s response to what it defined as an infringement on its sovereignty was viewed by many as lackluster, choosing diplomacy over a military response.
“Israel was addicted to quiet and shouldn’t do so anymore,” said Chorev. “Israel needs to exact a heavy price for each attack until the moment it feels prepared to take advantage to create a much stronger deterrence, but a point in time in which Israel is stronger than it is now.”
One of the main reasons Israel is believed to have stalled on a greater operation against Hezbollah is its concern that its army cannot fight two fronts simultaneously and successfully. Freeing up forces in Gaza, once realized, could turn Israel’s attention and force to the north.
Efforts by Amos Hochstein, the American envoy tasked with mediating between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, to reach a political settlement have so far been futile. The Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar reported Monday that Lebanon should be prepared for a massive Israeli attack in mid-June.
The attempts to reach a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza could either cool the northern front or allow Israel to pivot its attention there.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military has announced on numerous occasions that it has completed preparations for a broader confrontation on the border. Israeli media reported Tuesday that the war cabinet would convene later in the day for a special session dedicated to the latest events in the north.
Any deviation from the current rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel could easily lead us to a full-scale war
“Any deviation from the current rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel could easily lead us to a full-scale war,” said Levine. “For now, both sides are being cautious.”