Tensions are running high along the Israeli-Lebanese border after the Lebanese-based armed organization Hezbollah vowed to avenge the targeted killing of one of its senior officers by the Israeli military on Wednesday. Hezbollah’s immediate response included a barrage of almost 200 rockets into northern Israel on Wednesday, during the Jewish holiday of Shavuot. On Thursday, incessant rocket fire into Israel continued. It was yet another round of continuous violence between the sides that has been going on for eight months, since Hezbollah joined Hamas’ war against Israel, challenging it on its northern border.
A day after the war in Gaza began on October 7, Hezbollah started launching rockets, mortars, and offensive drones into northern Israel. This ongoing offensive by Hezbollah has been met with retaliatory airstrikes and artillery fire from the Israeli military. The sides operate within unspoken rules of engagement, each careful to not cause civilian casualties and not push the geographical limits of the conflict, currently contained to northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has acknowledged the death of at least 300 of its operatives. On the Israeli side, 29 people have been killed in a variety of incidents. In recent weeks, as the hot summer weather reaches its peak, Hezbollah rockets have also caused major fires in northern Israel, destroying thousands of dunams of forest land.
Nobody goes down the ladder, it only goes up
“What we have seen in the past eight months is a very slow-motion escalation, akin to a ladder that each side thinks very carefully about before taking another step up,” said Heiko Wimmen, project director of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group. “Nobody goes down the ladder, it only goes up.”
Since the beginning of the war, over 60,000 residents of the area have been evacuated by the Israeli government. Others, from areas within Hezbollah’s immediate range, have evacuated without a government order. Hopes for re-opening the school year on September 1 in the abandoned territory dwindle as Israel and Hezbollah seem far from resolving the situation.
“Now there is a danger that this ladder will turn into a spiral, as the leaders on both sides may feel they have to skip some steps on the ladder as they climb up,” Wimmen added. “Tactical or technical errors that lead to many civilian casualties despite both sides making serious efforts to avoid this, could create such pressure.”
Israel has chosen to contain the conflict, despite calls from ultra-nationalist ministers and part of the public to initiate an all-out war on Hezbollah and Lebanon. The Israeli military has carried out targeted strikes against senior commanders and Hezbollah military outposts.
What we are seeing is a war of trading blows that will end in no result other than delaying an all-out war. The question is, what will trigger it?
“Israel is deterred by Hezbollah,” said Dr. Eyal Pinko, a professor at Bar-Ilan University’s Political Studies Department and an expert on military strategy and intelligence. “Hezbollah has taken into consideration that its senior officials will be targeted, and this is a minor disturbance to the organization. What we are seeing is a war of trading blows that will end in no result other than delaying an all-out war. The question is, what will trigger it?”
On Thursday, as Hezbollah continued to pound Israel with the most rockets fired at its territory since October 7, its patience was being tasted.
Hezbollah is taking advantage of Israeli difficulties, and it is currently fruitful for them
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“Israel has eroded some of Hezbollah’s abilities but is in a holding mode – not wanting to fight on two fronts simultaneously,” said Dr. Dan Schueftan, head of the International Graduate Program in National Security Studies at the University of Haifa. “Hezbollah is taking advantage of Israeli difficulties, and it is currently fruitful for them.”
Israel would like to see Hezbollah forces distanced from the border. The last time Hezbollah and Israel went to war was in 2006. The war ended with United Nations Resolution 1701, which brought about a cease-fire and called for Hezbollah forces to be distanced from the border with Israel. This resolution has never been implemented.
Residents in northern Israel have reported an increased visible presence of Hezbollah outposts on the border in recent years, as the deterrent effect of Israel’s massive offensive in Lebanon wore off. In late 2018, the Israeli military uncovered what it said were four cross-border tunnels dug by Hezbollah to be used for a raid on border communities. Residents had reported drilling noises throughout the years before the tunnels were revealed. Hamas’ tunnel network in Gaza is said to have also been inspired by Hezbollah and was used to open the surprise attack on Israel. Those images were the realization of northern residents’ worst nightmare.
In 2018, the Israeli army completed the construction of a barrier along the border with Lebanon that includes sophisticated surveillance systems.
However, residents of Israel’s north do not find comfort in the presence of the barrier. The October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel was an exact playout of their own fears. Israel invested billions of dollars in a highly fortified, highly sophisticated border with Gaza which was only to be stormed easily by terrorists on motorcycles, tractors, and parachutes.
For years, the Israeli military has said it was preparing for a multifront war. It has also conducted numerous large-scale exercises to that effect. But now, as Israel is fighting a war in Gaza, it appears to be avoiding opening a full-on front in Lebanon. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, together with senior military officers, keep threatening Hezbollah that its time is coming up, so far there has been no change in policy.
“The army is afraid of entering such a war which will mean thousands of rockets fired daily into central Israel, with a sizeable number of casualties,” Pinko told The Media Line. “The army is also not prepared logistically, with not enough forces to execute a military maneuver.”
In addition, several reports by the state comptroller have alerted that the home front in Israel is not prepared for such an event, with lacking infrastructure and not enough bomb shelters for the public.
“Israel is now making adaptations, first of all in understanding that there are deep cultural differences between it and its enemies, who have little regard for civilian life. But also, in the belief that it can do with a small, highly technological army,” Schueftan told The Media Line. “This is only true in a battle against a regular army, not terrorist organizations like Hezbollah or Hamas, who fight outside of the battlefield.”
For now, Israel and Hezbollah have been very careful in keeping civilians out of the conflict.
Israel considers the organization its most dangerous enemy, estimating Hezbollah has accumulated over 150,000 unguided rockets and thousands of precision-guided rockets, with the help of the Iranian regime. In addition, it possesses offensive drones that have already been put to use in the current round of violence.
The multilayered Israeli air defense system, as highly sophisticated as it is, will likely have difficulty fending off barrages of thousands of rockets every day in the event of a war with Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s drones have proven to be a major challenge to Israel’s defense systems.
“One of Hezbollah’s tactics is to make a lot of noise, forcing Israel to use very expensive systems to intercept the very cheap rockets it is firing and has an endless supply of,” Wimmen told The Media Line. “Another tactic is delivering precise blows at military infrastructure to demonstrate that the group is well prepared for a larger confrontation and won’t stand down if Israel were to escalate further.”
According to Wimmen, both sides are using the current round of violence to carefully study each other, testing abilities and responses. The scorched earth of northern Israel and southern Lebanon has become a learning ground for modern warfare.
In recent years, Israel’s air force is believed to be behind hundreds of strikes that have targeted this project. Yet the success appears to be limited, as a huge arsenal of rockets is also widely believed to be intact.
Now, Israel is after eight months of war in Gaza. Its forces, including reserve soldiers, are being stretched to the limit. Also, the possibility of a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza, as vague as it is, has Israel on hold. Many in the defense establishment believe that a settlement with Hamas will inevitably lead to a halt in the fire between Israel and Hezbollah. This is perhaps what Israel is waiting for, as it acknowledges its own limitations.
“The problem will be that in the end, Israel will not be able to defend the communities on the border,” said Pinko. “The 7th of October showed that that ability is close to zero and the only solution is to create a buffer zone within Lebanon which is an unlikely scenario.”
US mediator Amos Hochstein has been trying to negotiate a settlement that would satisfy both Israel and Hezbollah and restore calm on the border. The US has put substantial pressure on Israel to contain the conflict as much as possible. In Israel, there are increased calls for a widespread military operation in Lebanon.
“What is needed now is more force,” said Schueftan, who believes Israel has succumbed to US pressure for too long. “Israel shouldn’t initiate a war, but it should take steps that risk a war, knowing it could be dangerous. In the Middle East, if someone is not scared of you, you need to be scared of them.”
Despite the massive rocket barrages in recent days, the Israeli war cabinet is scheduled to convene on Sunday evening, signaling there is no immediate intention to escalate the situation, for now.