[Jerusalem] – Reacting quickly to the United Nations Security Council resolution calling for the so-called “snap-back” provision and extension of sanctions to be implemented against Iran under certain conditions, the Islamic Republic’s senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said that Iran will not accept any attempt to extend sanctions beyond 10 years. Speaking at a news conference broadcast live on Iranian television, he said that any attempt to re-impose sanctions after they expire in ten years would be a breach of the deal and would have “no credibility.”
His comments were only the latest in a string of confrontational announcements by Iranian officials to have been made since Tehran agreed to curtail its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. The snap-back provision and possible extension of sanctions are important talking points for President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and the team charged with preventing Congress from rejecting the deal, but they are getting no help from Team Tehran. Despite President Obama having vowed to veto any attempt by Congress to block the deal, Israel has launched an influence campaign to encourage the Congress to do exactly that.
Comparing it to a shell game, foremost among Israeli arguments is the feasibility of inspectors to be able to search both declared and undeclared nuclear sites in Iran.
“This is a source of tremendous concern in Israel – inadequate verification,” Dore Gold, the director-general of Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told reporters in Jerusalem. “Everyone is focusing on the scenario of breakout – the Iranians breaking out of their restrictions and completing whatever work has to be done to assemble a nuclear bomb. Where is breakout more likely – in declared sites which will probably have a robust verification system or in an undeclared site, where you have this 24 day notice [before inspectors can enter]? To my mind the real Achilles’ heel in the agreement is the undeclared sites because those are the locations from which breakout will occur.”
Gold said that with 24 days’ notice prior to any inspection Iran will be able to sanitize any traces of illegal nuclear activity, as Iraq has been able to do in the past.
Beyond that, he said, there is a growing threat from Iran’s conventional weapons. He quoted a speech by the Iranian defense minister that issues related to missiles have never been on the agenda of talks with the international community, meaning that Iran is moving ahead with its ballistic missile program.
“Iran has been able to strike Israel from Iranian territory since the Shihab-3 became operational in 2003,” he said, adding that during military parades, the missile is emblazoned with a sign in English and Farsi that reads, “Israel must be wiped off the map.” “Clearly the Iranians have hopes to go beyond those ranges,” said Gold.
In addition, the sanctions relief means that Iran will have a huge influx of cash, a windfall of as much as $150 billion dollars, which many have suggested will be used to finance terrorism.
Other commentators in Israel offered a different take. Iranian-born expert Meir Javendafar said Netanyahu is making a mistake. “Some people believe we should leave the gun of sanctions next to Iran’s head and get them to dismantle everything and then Iran will never be a danger to us,” Javendafar told journalists in Jerusalem. “But do you know what happens when you point a gun at someone’s head? As soon as you remove the (threat) they will look for another gun.”
It would be far better for Israel to give Iran a deal that gives them something to lose, he said.
“If we leave them with nothing, they have nothing to lose,” the analyst said. “If we force them to dismantle everything, there will be unity in the regime and they will all say, ‘we were humiliated and we were forced on to our knees.’ But if we leave them with something, it’s going to lead to so much infighting in the Iranian regime — both over the money that is released and over this deal.”
Which side of the argument has the right of it might take years to truly be revealed. For the time being, all eyes remain on the US Congress and those seeking to influence the vote.