Israel Election Roundup: A Night of 7’s

Labor, Yisrael Beitenu, Blue and White, Yamina, Religious Zionism, United Torah Judaism projected to garner seven Knesset seats each

As the polls close in Israel’s national election on Tuesday night, this is what Israeli election exit polls show:

Seven has become the evening’s magic number, with six parties all projected to receive that number of Knesset seats in the 120-member Knesset, according to an average of the Channel 11, 12 and 13 exit polls, as reported by Haaretz: On the anti-Netanyahu side, the left-wing Labor party, the centrist Blue and White, and the right-wing Yisrael Beitenu; on the pro-Netanyahu side, the right-wing United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism parties; and lastly, not committed on whether it will support or oppose the incumbent prime minister’s coalition-building efforts, the right-wing Yamina party.

At 67.2%, Israel saw its lowest voter turnout rate since 2009, when the figure was 64.7%.

Election Day’s Biggest Winner

Naftali Bennett, the chairman of Yamina, appears to control the swing vote in forming the next government, depending on whether he joins or opposes a coalition led by Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Winners

The Likud is projected to win 31 seats, the most of any party, but still fewer than the 36 seats it received in March 2020.

The far-right Religious Zionism party had been expected to get four seats, but is now projected to end up with three more.

Israel’s Left Wing

Labor and Meretz did better than expected, with the latter earning six seats despite going into Election Day at risk of not making the 3.25% threshold. The minimum number of seats to get into the Knesset is generally four, equivalent to approximately 140,000 votes. The Labor-Meretz-Gesher bloc combined won just seven seats in 2020.

Breaking Even

The pro-Likud Shas is projected to have nine seats in the next Knesset, the same number it received in the March 2020 vote.

The centrist Yesh Atid party, led by Yair Lapid, is forecast to earn 17 seats, close to how it performed last year.

Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu party appears to have received the same number of seats as it did last time around.

Losers

The New Economy party and the Islamist United Arab List (Ra’am) both failed to pass the threshold to be accepted into the next Knesset.

The predominantly Arab Joint List is expected to get eight seats, down from 15 in last year’s election. The party had been expected to lose seats after the United Arab List split from the group.

Biggest Losers

The Blue and White party, headed by Benny Gantz, collapsed, going from 33 seats in last year’s election to just seven, according to Tuesday’s exit polls.

The biggest disappointment of the evening appears to be Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party, which, after doing well earlier in the campaign, ended with only six projected seats.