Israel Weighs Iran Strategy Against Backdrop of Ukraine War

Perhaps the greatest lesson to be learned by Israel is to not go it alone

As Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made his way from Moscow to Berlin and back to Jerusalem over the weekend, it was not only peace in Europe he was trying to help achieve. The Iranian nuclear program and the latest attempts to curb its aspirations were surely on the agenda as well.

As nuclear negotiations with Iran appear set to conclude in Vienna in the coming days or weeks, Bennett and other Israeli officials are carefully gauging the international community, trying to decipher how the current crisis in Europe, which has the potential to create a new world order, impacts another contentious topic. The response to the crisis between Ukraine and Russia could serve as a preview for Israel, should it decide to act unilaterally against Iran.

Events could also push Israel to the opposite realization, that the need for international support is especially critical when facing such a substantial, some believe existential, threat coming from the Islamic Republic.

“For some Israelis, the crisis further hammered in the fact that the international arena is in anarchy, the environment is belligerent, and every country needs to take care of its own interests,” said Dr. Ehud Eiran from Mitvim − The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and a professor of international relations at the University of Haifa.

“They look at assurances that were given to Ukraine but were not delivered. This further confirms a traditional view among many Israelis that their country is alone,” Eiran said.

In Israel’s historic, yet still fresh memory, there are moments of international isolation, sanctions, and a crippling dependence on foreign military aid.

Decades later, however, this is not the case.

“It’s difficult to erase thousands of years of history with a few decades of independence,” said Eran Etzion, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council.

“Even in an aggressive world, Israel is pretty strong,” said Eiran. “In such a world, you still need allies, even if looking at things in a realistic way. Even superpowers need allies. There is no contradiction – one still needs international backing.”

Adding to the list of things Israel must monitor is the effect of tensions between Russia and the West on the negotiations with Iran. If in the end, global tensions make a deal impossible, the Israeli government is likely to be relieved.

“The disadvantages of the agreement far outweigh its advantages. In any case, the agreement would not obligate the State of Israel in any way,” Bennett said at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem on Sunday.

Etzion said, “The government will be happy if there will be no agreement because they believe wrongfully that Israel is better off without one, but it is clear that there is no better alternative.

“Their alternative is a fantasy that without an agreement the US and the world will take action against Iran. But on the ground, the conflict in Ukraine has further reduced the likelihood of this. It wasn’t on the table before and most certainly isn’t now,” he said.

But if there is a deal with a weakened sanctions regime, Israel will likely be displeased. As repeatedly stated by Israeli leaders on all sides of the political map, the country sees itself free to act against an Iranian nuclear threat.

The events in Europe also come after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which reverberated in the Middle East. For Israel and its newfound allies in the Gulf, what they view as a gradual American disengagement from the region leaves them largely alone to fend off their rival in Tehran.

Israel is looking in other directions for possible alliances and contingency plans.

“There is an understanding that the US will not solve all of the region’s problems and Israel will have to solve some of those problems alone. This has led to regional alliances,” said Eiran.

The recent normalization of relations between Israel and some of the Gulf states has enabled some coordination on security matters. With a mutual threat from Iran and a common understanding that the US is not as involved as it was in the past, regional cooperation is flourishing.

The crisis in Europe has already had an impact on Russia’s international standing. Russia is a major player in the Middle East, and the winds from Moscow and Kyiv will soon be felt in Tehran and Jerusalem.

With President Joe Biden ruling out direct US military intervention in Europe, it is hard to imagine American boots on the ground in case of an escalation in the Middle East. But Israel doesn’t necessarily need or want American troops to fight its battles. But support in the UN Security Council and funding for air defense systems and other forms of strategic military assistance are crucial for Israel.

One of Israel’s main criticisms of the international community regards the easing of sanctions against Iran and what is believed to be the further lifting of sanctions in the agreement being negotiated at present. Russia has been under harsh sanctions since the beginning of its offensive against Ukraine and has yet to back down, raising questions about their efficacy.

“The conclusion for Israel should be the opposite. Not that sanctions don’t work, but that this is an unconventional weapon that is super effective. It might not look as dramatic in pictures, but it is highly potent,” said Etzion.

A Russian attempt to create linkage between sanctions imposed on it and sanctions being negotiated in Vienna could be of concern to Israel, which will be pushing for a tougher US stance on Iran.

“The US will not want to make any move to be flexible toward Russia at this point,” Eiran said. Reports coming out of Vienna indicate this could reduce the chances of reaching an agreement with Tehran.

Defense experts in Israel believe that during the period in which the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear agreement, in 2018 until today, Iran has gotten closer to nuclear weapons capabilities.

The global preoccupation with the war between Russia and Ukraine has diverted attention from the negotiating room in Vienna. This may put a deal at risk; for Israel, this may provide an opportunity to act. But it is widely believed that Israel does not have the military ability to undertake a large-scale strike on Iran, with the many complexities such an attack carries with it.

“International focus, or lack thereof, is not the only factor that Israel would take into consideration [when considering a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities],” said Eiran. “Any action would be so big that it wouldn’t go unnoticed even though international attention is diverted at the moment.”

As both Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Putin look for international support, perhaps the greatest lesson to be learned by Israel is to not go it alone.

“National security in this age benefits from major alliances, and Israel should be the first to understand this,” said Etzion, “Its alliance with the US is the one that brought it to its current position, and Israel must not take this for granted.”

Israel may in fact be alone in how it perceives the Iranian threat, but it would be ill-advised to act alone. The lessons currently being learned in Europe clearly demonstrate this.