TheMediaLine
WHAT WOULD YOU GIVE TO CHANGE THE MISINFORMATION
about the
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR?
Israeli, Palestinian Leaders Meet Again to De-escalate Tension Ahead of Ramadan
Israel Defense Forces soldiers operate in the West Bank town of Huwara on March 19, 2023, after an American-Israeli man was seriosuly injured in a shooting attack at the same time as Israeli and Palestinian officials met in the coastal Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh in the Sinai Peninsula in a bid to de-escalate the security situation ahead of the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. (IDF)

Israeli, Palestinian Leaders Meet Again to De-escalate Tension Ahead of Ramadan

The meeting held in Sharm el-Sheikh is a follow-up to the Aqaba conference held in late February, but internal politics on both sides presents challenges  

Israeli and Palestinian officials met on Sunday in the coastal Egyptian city of Sharm el-Sheikh in the Sinai Peninsula in a bid to de-escalate the security situation ahead of the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan which starts later this week. The conference also was attended by Egyptian, Jordanian and American envoys who are backing the effort.

Sunday’s conference is a follow-up to the forum that was held in the Jordanian city of Aqaba in late February, called due to the rising tensions in the West Bank.

Dr. Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic and Security Studies (JISS) and a former Israeli deputy national security adviser, told The Media Line that these conferences are meant to counteract the players on both sides who are seeking an escalation.

He says Ramadan does not have to be a month of escalation in violence every year, citing an analysis by JISS that concludes: “Caution is called for because, clearly, there are provocative elements on both sides who would like to see escalation, and that’s what the conference is designed to avoid.”

A joint communiqué signed by Israel and the Palestinian Authority at the end of the Sharm el-Sheikh summit on Sunday said that the “two sides agreed to establish a mechanism to curb and counter violence, incitement and inflammatory states and actions.” According to the agreement, both sides agreed to stop unilateral actions that would anger the other side. The agreement said that Israel pledged to stop discussion of new settlement construction for four months, and to stop plans to legalize unauthorized settlement outposts for six months. Neither Israel nor the Palestinians commented on the agreement after it was announced.

On the Palestinian side, Lerman notes that tensions are growing internally between Fatah and Hamas. “Hamas is trying to create provocations to derail this Aqaba process that is now continuing in Sharm el-Sheikh,” he said, adding that, to some extent, there already has been some positive influence on the internal Palestinian balance of power.

“The Palestinian security forces are doing here and there what they need to do, not effectively enough but, still, it reduces the burden on the Israeli security forces to some degree,” he continued.

Caution is called for because, clearly, there are provocative elements on both sides who would like to see escalation, and that’s what the conference is designed to avoid

Lerman explains that the Palestinian Authority cannot control the situation in the West Bank alone.

“They know very well that, without the daily work of the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet, they would not be able to control what is happening inside the West Bank,” he said, adding that the PA is particularly weakened in the northern part of the West Bank.

That is why he believes that if the Israeli and Palestinian officials during the Sharm meeting manage to arrive at an understanding of transparent and mutual expectations, then it would contribute to de-escalation.

Lt. Col. (Res.) Yohanan Tzoreff, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and an expert on Palestinian affairs, says that the Palestinian Authority currently is very weak in the West Bank and it is hard for the authority to control the situation, especially in the cities of Jenin and Nablus.

“The Palestinian Authority can commit to trying [to control the situation] but I’m not sure that we can depend on it,” he told The Media Line.

Tzoreff explains that the PA is widely seen by the Palestinian people as a body that “cooperates with Israel against them,” making it very difficult to come to an understanding with some of the Palestinian factions that operate in the West Bank.

“They used to make deals with those groups to prevent the Israeli army from coming inside, but now I think they lost their reliability and I’m not sure that the groups are ready to talk with the PA,” he said, adding that last week a PA establishment was attacked by gunshots in the city of Jenin.

On the Israeli side it is necessary to avoid escalation with the Palestinians, according to Lerman. He says that there is no current prospect in the foreseeable future of an attempt at conflict resolution due to a lack of enough common ground between both leaderships, but that the Israeli security establishment is not interested in an escalation either.

“I think the position of the Israeli defense establishment essentially is focused currently on conflict management and this is what the Aqaba and Sharm el-Sheikh conferences are designed to achieve,” he said.

The reason is very simple, according to Lerman.  “Israel has an Iranian challenge of the first order that requires our total concentration,” he explained.

He argues that the situation in Israel is bad enough with the internal turmoil over judicial reform, and a major escalation with the Palestinians would represent an impediment to the Israeli security establishment’s ability to focus to the needed extent on the Iranian threat.

But he says that, in this case, Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has shown interest in de-escalation despite different intentions shown by other government partners. This is proved by the fact that the process backed by the US, Jordan and Egypt is continuing despite the dismissive comments of some of Netanyahu’s coalition partners after the Aqaba meeting in late February.

The participation in the conference of Israel’s national security advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, is, according to Lerman, an “indication that, at least on this issue, Netanyahu has come down on the side of the professional defense establishment.”

“At least on this specific question, the prime minister clearly came down on the side of the defense establishments’ perspectives,” he said, adding that it has been questioned whether the Israeli government coalition trusts the country’s professional elite, which includes the judiciary and the military.

Tzoreff says that, in addition to Ramadan approaching, the Jewish holiday of Passover is nearing as well, during which it is expected that some observant Jews will want to visit the Temple Mount site. If the number of visitors increases, Tzoreff believes that the Palestinians will interpret it as an attempt from the Israeli side to change the status quo in the Al-Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount. In that case, he added, “Hamas will be committed to doing something in order to show the people that it has the responsibility for this situation,” he said.

On this issue, and other policies concerning East Jerusalem, says Tzoreff, there is a lot of disagreement between Israel’s Ministry of Internal Security, and the Israeli security establishment.

The Israel Police warned that some Palestinian terror organizations are looking to create an escalation using the pretext of changes in the status quo surrounding Jerusalem, similar to the one that took place in May last year. That is why the police are urging the government to avoid the increase in Jewish visitors to the Temple Mount compound and additional demolitions of houses in east Jerusalem.

But Itamar Ben-Gvir, the minister of National Security, “wants to show the people that he is not a usual minister; he needs to say that he’s doing a lot in order to achieve security. But the Israel Police think that his ideas can only increase escalation and not limit it,” Tzoreff said.

“I think it’s been very much expected of Mr. Netanyahu to ensure that Israel does not add to an already fragile situation,” said Lerman.

 

TheMediaLine
WHAT WOULD YOU GIVE TO CHANGE THE MISINFORMATION
about the
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR?
Personalize Your News
Upgrade your experience by choosing the categories that matter most to you.
Click on the icon to add the category to your Personalize news
Browse Categories and Topics