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Israel’s Opposition Must Convince Likud Supporters That This Is Not the Government They Voted For
Israeli Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu, left, speaks with Knesset member Aryeh Deri, head of the Haredi Orthodox Shas party during a session to elect the new speaker of the parliament in its Plenum Hall in Jerusalem, Dec. 13, 2022. (Gil Cohen-Magen/AFP via Getty Images)

Israel’s Opposition Must Convince Likud Supporters That This Is Not the Government They Voted For

The only real obstacle to the incoming government for it to pass a planned series of new laws is the coalition lawmakers themselves

After Israel’s new government is sworn in in the coming days, the only way the opposition will be able to bring down the government is by persuading the Israeli public, especially Likud party voters, that this is not the government that they voted in to run the country.

Israel’s Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu announced late last week that he had succeeded in forming a government coalition that is set to be sworn in before the January 2 deadline.

The government coalition is expected to include 64 Knesset members who belong to Netanyahu’s Likud, far-right parties, and ultra-Orthodox parties. That leaves an opposition of 56 lawmakers which is expected to be led by outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is the head of the largest party outside the government.

Due to the bold majority that the government coalition counts on, the opposition’s goal of bringing down the government by working within the Knesset is not viable, says Professor Jonathan Rynhold, head of the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan.

“I think that for the opposition to bring down the government there is not a lot that they can do directly in terms of the Knesset,” he told The Media Line.

But what the opposition can do, he adds, is to address the Israeli public directly.

“They will try and also show Likud voters that they are not getting the government that they want, by stressing the resources and the compromises to the benefit of the extreme right-wing and particularly the Haredim” made by Netanyahu on behalf of his party, he notes.

Most of the Israeli public, which also includes Likud voters, as well as Likud politicians, reject providing the ultra-Orthodox leadership with large budgets and influence, Rynhold explains.

This can create tension between the Likud party and some of the other coalition member parties, he says.

“Some of the Likud voters will become disillusioned, and so that tension between those different parts of the government is something that, I imagine, the opposition will stress,” he said.

Rynhold points out that Lapid already addressed the Likud voters, by questioning if the government that Netanyahu is forming is the one that they intended to vote for.

These are all laws that are intended to pass to benefit specific individuals which really, according to any constitutional system, should never occur because laws shouldn’t be personal

Maoz Rosenthal, senior lecturer at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University, says that generally the opposition parties within the Knesset must work cohesively as a group of to try to find ways to make sure that the government is not able to pass legislation, to veto some of the government initiatives and to criticize the government. These, he argues, are mostly ineffectual in the case of the incoming government since it has a well-defined majority.

“Once there is a solid majority for the ruling coalition, the ability of the opposition to actually be effective in these strategies is limited,” he told The Media Line.

That is why he predicts that the government will manage to stay in office for an extended period of time.

The upcoming government is discussing passing some bills that are considered controversial by many, including changing the quasi-constitutional Basic Laws and reforming the Supreme Court. These, says Rynhold, can only be halted if enough members of the coalition oppose them and vote against them.

Rosenthal agrees that the only obstacles that can emerge are those within the coalition, and mostly within the Likud, whose members might dislike some of these new laws. “Although I doubt the real courage of people within the Likud to go against Netanyahu,” he added.

Rynhold explains that the nature of some of these bills is problematic. In the short term, he says, the coalition is passing laws that are meant to benefit “specific, particular individuals who have been involved in corruption.”

Among these, he cites the amendment to the Basic Law that defines who can serve in the role of a government minister, which is meant to benefit lawmaker Aryeh Deri, the head of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party. Deri resigned from the Knesset in January 2022 as part of a plea bargain for tax offenses, for which he received a suspended prison sentence and a large fine. Because he resigned, no decision was made on whether the offenses amounted to “moral turpitude,” which would prevent him from serving in the Knesset for seven years.

“The potential law will allow Deri to serve as a minister, even though he has been found guilty of corruption. According to the law, he cannot be a minister for seven years from the date of his conviction,” Rynhold explained.

He also cites the law to change the structure of the authority of the minister of interior, and the minister of defense “to allow (Bezalel) Smotrich and (Itamar) Ben-Gvir to have authority over settlements and the police, even though they don’t control those ministries.”

We are heading straight ahead into a constitutional crisis between these two institutions, the Knesset and the judiciary

Also, Rynhold notes that the government might pass a bill in the future to enable Netanyahu’s trial on several corruption charges to end before the judges reach a verdict.

“These are all laws that are intended to pass to benefit specific individuals which really, according to any constitutional system, should never occur because laws shouldn’t be personal,” he said.

Rosenthal says the only other obstacle that these laws could encounter before being approved is the Supreme Court. If they are sent to review by the Supreme Court, it might overrule them on the basis of being counter to the country’s Basic Law or considered as overreaching the Knesset’s authority.

However, among the bills that the new coalition has discussed, there is the bill that aims to limit the power of the Supreme Court which, Rosenthal warns, could lead to a constitutional crisis.

Such a bill, says Rosenthal, “relates to the court itself and if the courts will tell the Knesset that it cannot limit its powers, it is going to be a constitutional crisis, which I have no idea how it would be solved.”

“We are heading straight ahead into a constitutional crisis between these two institutions, the Knesset and the judiciary,” he warned.

Rosenthal points to the possibility that some coalition members will change their minds on this bill during its legislative process.

“Because it has so many implications, I think this one they’ll send to the committee to work on it, and then things might happen there along the road within the coalition. It is so tricky, and there are so many implications to it, that it might backfire on the coalition itself,” he said.

Rosenthal argues that at the end of the day this legislation might not pass or could be greatly modified before it passes.

However, Rynhold says that the most controversial of all these bills is one that will allow the judges to be appointed by the government and the Knesset, “in effect politicizing the judiciary and taking away or severely limiting its independence.”

“I think that would be a very dangerous step toward corrupting Israel’s democratic institutions,” he said.

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