After a fresh round of US-Iranian talks over the weekend, Israel finds itself in a tricky position, caught between loyalty to its ally and its prime minister’s lifelong vow to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Many experts believe Iran is on the cusp of nuclear capability, something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly promised not to allow.
Tensions have been running high in the Middle East since a war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist organization in Gaza erupted. The conflict quickly spread into a regional one, including a first-ever direct confrontation between Israel and Iran exactly a year ago.
This broader escalation has heightened the stakes surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear program if a deal is not reached. At the same time, Iranian officials continue to warn that they could easily develop nuclear weapons, with their stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels.
Direct negotiations between the US and Iran began earlier this month. The American attempt to give diplomacy a chance has raised concern in Israel that the White House might be less inclined to take forceful action against Tehran, perhaps even backing away from the support it is believed to be giving Netanyahu.
These fears are reflected in Israeli public and military sentiment.
There is a certain degree of stress among Israelis when they see diplomatic moves towards Iran
“There is a certain degree of stress among Israelis when they see diplomatic moves towards Iran,” Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, told The Media Line. “It immediately takes them back to the Obama and Biden administration. But this is not the situation. Even Trump, who tends to do whatever he wants, needs international and domestic legitimacy in order to attack Iran and therefore must give diplomacy a chance.”
Israeli skepticism toward negotiations with Iran has deep historical roots.
During the administration of US President Barack Obama, a nuclear agreement was signed with Iran. Israel was highly critical of the deal, which was seen as serving as a temporary restraint on Iranian aspirations while also failing to address the ballistic missile threat posed by the Islamic Republic. During President Trump’s first term in office, he withdrew from the deal, much to Netanyahu’s satisfaction.
For a brief period between Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025 and the latest, unprecedented American attempt to negotiate directly with Iran, Israeli officials believed they had US backing for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Speaking to Bari Weiss on the Honestly podcast Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said his country would be willing to see Iran have a civilian nuclear program. This statement, along with others made by various senior American officials, has raised concerns that there is a growing gap between Washington and Israel regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions.
Against this backdrop of growing anxiety in Jerusalem, President Trump sought to reassure Israeli leaders and the public.
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“We are on the same side of every issue,” the president posted on the White House’s official X account.
In addition, earlier this week, Washington announced it was imposing new sanctions against Iran targeting its liquefied petroleum gas sector. Iran reacted angrily to the move, saying it demonstrated “a lack of goodwill and seriousness” regarding the negotiations.
Statements by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, who is handling the negotiations with Iran, have also raised alarm bells in Israel. Witkoff alluded to a US agreement to cap Iranian nuclear enrichment without dismantling its nuclear program.
“What Israel is facing is an American administration with two contradicting components, one of them is isolationist,” said Avivi. “What needs to be explained to them is that attacking Iran is not the beginning of the war, but rather the end of it. Israel needs to make sure that the isolationist voices do not overpower those who favor attacking Iran.”
Israel is concerned that Iran will use the talks to stall a possible attack while continuing to push forward with its nuclear plans.
“The talks buy time for Iran while also at least temporarily freezing the option of a military strike against it,” Dr. Menahem Merhavy, a research fellow and expert on Iran at the Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told The Media Line. “Iran is at a very weak point right now, and its nuclear program is a bargaining chip which is always better to have, even on a back burner, rather than giving it up.”
While talks have continued, Israel has quietly been improving its strategic position.
Throughout the war, conditions for Israel to strike Iran appear to have ripened. Israel has successfully managed to marginalize the threat from the Lebanese-based Hezbollah organization, which aimed to deter the Jewish state from attacking Iran for fear of massive Hezbollah retaliation along its northern border. Israel also took advantage of instability in Syria to strike sites critical to Iran’s movement of weapons throughout the region, mainly to Hezbollah in Lebanon. In addition, Israel’s retaliatory strike against Iran’s second direct attack last October reportedly hit military sites, including many air-defense batteries, a drone factory, and several missile production facilities.
After the attack, many experts in Israel believed the path had been cleared for a pinpoint strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. But ahead of the US election, with a contrarian Democratic White House, Netanyahu did not rush to take action. As President Trump entered office, it was speculated that a joint Israeli-American attack could be on the horizon.
“The strategic reality has completely changed,” said Avivi. “Iran’s envelope of fire around Israel has been wiped out, and we are now at a historical point in time that will not return.”
According to Avivi, a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities could occur within the coming year and will likely be closely coordinated between the Americans and Israelis. He believes the chances that talks between Iran and the US will result in Iran dismantling its nuclear facilities are slim to none.
In addition to the seismic geopolitical changes that have occurred in the region, the Trump administration has reversed an arms embargo imposed on Israel by the Biden administration. Since the president’s swearing-in, there has been a steady flow of arms to Israel and a massive deployment of American forces, weapons systems, and aircraft carriers to the region. These weapons reportedly include large-yield bombs, or so-called bunker-busters, which can penetrate deep underground sites where Iran conceals its nuclear facilities.
The US has moved the USS Harry S. Truman to the Red Sea and the USS Carl Vinson from the Indo‑Pacific to deter Iran and the Yemen-based Houthi organization, against which the US is currently engaged in daily attacks. Media reports, quoting senior American defense officials, say several thousand additional soldiers and an entire Patriot air-defense battalion have been moved from the Pacific to undisclosed locations in the Gulf, along with bombers and fighter reinforcements.
Despite Iran’s current vulnerabilities, both Washington and Jerusalem recognize that diplomacy remains the preferred initial course.
Iran is also trying to reassert itself in the region after a difficult period.
Iran is almost at its knees, its weakness exposed and its strategy of engulfing Israel with many fronts simultaneously collapsed
“Iran has been greatly affected by what happened, especially in Lebanon and Syria,” Merhavy said. “Iran is almost at its knees, its weakness exposed and its strategy of engulfing Israel with many fronts simultaneously collapsed.”
“It doesn’t have any strong cards left in its pocket,” he added.
Perhaps in an attempt to show force, an Iranian delegation displayed the country’s latest weapons systems at an international defense exhibition held in Iraq last weekend.
In recent weeks, the Iranian regime has also faced another wave of protests. Teachers, oil contract workers, and public housing applicants rallied in several cities over unpaid wages, soaring prices, and a plummeting currency.
While diplomatic efforts are still underway, Israeli and American leaders have been going to great lengths to display a united front.
The most important development is that the US is taking responsibility and saying it is a global problem and not an Israeli problem that needs to be solved
“The most important development is that the US is taking responsibility and saying it is a global problem and not an Israeli problem that needs to be solved,” Avivi summarized.