No Successor, No Elections
Palestinians are increasingly calling on 81-year-old Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to appoint a successor, fearing there could be chaos if Abbas is forced to step down for health reasons. Now Abbas is facing a challenge from former Palestinian strongman Mohammed Dahlan, who is supported by Egypt, Jordan and the UAE.
Dahlan, who has been living in Abu Dhabi and working as a senior advisor to Prince Muhammad Bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. Dahlan said this week that he does not plan to run for President to succeed Abbas, and supports jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti, who polls show is the most popular Palestinian politician.
In an interview with the Maan News Agency, Dahlan said he supports Barghouti out of “personal belief”. But Palestinian analysts said they were skeptical that he had given up his personal ambitions.
“Dahlan is trying to portray himself as humble as if he doesn’t have political ambitions,” Mkheimar Abusada, a professor at Al-Azhar University in the Gaza Strip told The Media Line. “Everyone respects Barghouti who has been in jail for 14 years. Dahlan is trying to send a calm signal to Abu Mazen,” he said using a nickname for Palestinian leader Abbas.
Dahlan, 54, was the head of the Palestinian Authority Preventive Security Forces in Gaza, and retains his ties to the densely-populated Strip, even after Abbas expelled him from Fatah’s ruling body in 2011 and forced his move to Abu Dhabi. In 2014, the Palestinian Authority tried Dahlan on corruption charges in absentia after he failed to show up for the trial. Abbas even accused him of murdering his predecessor, Yasser Arafat.
Since 2007, the Islamist Hamas movement has controlled Gaza. Hamas has also been hesitant to participate in elections, fearing they might lose power. Last month, Abbas cancelled municipal elections, which could have been the first step to national elections.
Dahlan’s wife remains active in charities in Gaza, and last month helped arrange a mass wedding for poor Palestinians in Gaza, funded by Abu Dhabi. Professor Abusada says Dahlan has donated a lot of money to Gaza, including half a million dollars to Al-Azhar University, which is affiliated with Fatah, the wing of the PLO that both Abbas and Dahlan belong to.
“Dahlan is very popular in Gaza,” Abusada said. “He began his political career as one of the leaders of the first intifada (the uprising against Israel). He served time in an Israeli jail. Many Palestinians feel that Abbas is too old and weak to defend the Palestinian cause.”
Palestinian media reports say that Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates have agreed that Dahlan should replace Abbas. One report says that Dahlan will start as parliamentary speaker, but will be poised to take over if Abbas needs to leave.
However, Dahlan is far less popular in the West Bank than in Gaza. Many Palestinians say he has close ties to Israel, and he has been accused of corruption. Polls show that about 60 percent of Palestinians do not want Dahlan to return to the West Bank. A similar number want Abbas to step down. Abbas was elected in 2005 for a four-year-term, the only election held since 1996.
Palestinians in refugee camps like Balata in Nablus and al-Amari near Ramallah have grown increasingly angry with the current situation. On several occasions when large numbers of Palestinian police entered Balata to arrest suspects, they encountered violent resistance and withdrew after hours of exchanges of fire.
PA Nablus governor Akram Rajoub has appealed to the residents of Balata to help the Palestinian Authority enforce law and order.
Palestinian analysts say the gunfire in Balata shows just how much power Abbas has lost.
“What is happening in the refugee camps is a kind of civil war, and I expect we will see more of this,” Hamada Jaber, a Palestinian analyst, told The Media Line. “Abbas was right when he spoke about dissolving the Palestinian Authority. If there is disorder after him, he has only himself to blame.”