While global attention is focused on the war between Israel and Iran, battles between Israel and Hamas continue in Gaza. The fighting is intense, with the death toll continuing to rise on both sides, even as Israel has reportedly scaled down its military presence in the Gaza Strip to divert forces to other arenas.
Israeli ground troops are still operating within Gaza, and the air force continues to carry out airstrikes against targets in the territory.
In one incident on Tuesday, the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said at least 51 Palestinians were killed and over 200 were wounded while waiting for humanitarian aid in the southern Gaza Strip. According to the Palestinians, the Israeli air force conducted an airstrike that ended in the lethal result. Israel’s military said the incident was under review.
Hamas is still holding 53 Israeli hostages, fewer than half of whom are believed to be alive. Negotiations to secure their release and reach a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel have been ongoing but have so far failed to reach a settlement.
These negotiations have been mediated mostly by Qatar and Egypt. Qatar is Hamas’ major benefactor, exerting much more significant influence over Hamas than Iran does. This dynamic is a critical factor in Hamas’ steadfastness while facing Israel, making Iran’s role in the Gaza conflict a smaller one than many in the Israeli government would like to admit.
As Israel began its offensive against Hamas last week, there was speculation that a successful campaign against the Islamic Republic would coerce the Gaza-based terrorist group into submission. Many experts say that could be too good to be true.
Gaza is a separate and distinct front. Gaza is what lit the fire in the whole region, but the other arenas do not really have an influence on it.
“Gaza is a separate and distinct front,” Guy Aviad, a military historian and expert on Hamas, told The Media Line. “Gaza is what lit the fire in the whole region, but the other arenas do not really have an influence on it.”
The war between Israel and Hamas began on October 7, 2023, and sparked a wider regional conflict, which now seems to have reached its climax in the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran. Israel considers Iran the source of all terrorism aimed at the Jewish state, with Iran funding many of the terrorist organizations that operate against Israel in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
The connection between Iran and Hamas began in the 1990s and then developed into more assistance, especially with weapons. Unlike Iran, which is Shiite, Hamas is Sunni, with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. This affiliation brings Hamas closer to Qatar, Egypt and Turkey than to Iran.
After Hamas’ October 7 attack, the group was reportedly disappointed that Iran had not instructed its other proxies to join more intensively in the effort against Israel. While supported by Iran, Hamas seems to have decided upon the timing of the attack independently, forcing Iran’s proxies to operate against Israel at a timing not of their choosing.
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“Hamas’ war wouldn’t have made sense without bringing in the other radical groups,” Jonathan Rynhold, head of the political studies department at Bar-Ilan University, told The Media Line. “It would have not had the same effect.”
The war with Hamas is still ongoing, but other Iranian-backed fronts have gradually been handled. An intense conflict with the Lebanese-based Hezbollah organization has ended with a ceasefire between the sides. Shortly after that ceasefire was declared, the Iran-allied Assad regime in Syria fell.
Iran’s strategy has long involved a “ring of fire” around Israel through heavily armed proxy groups, applying constant military pressure to deter Israeli action against Tehran.
As cracks in that strategy started to show, Iran sped up work on its weapons programs and nuclear ambitions in order to target the Jewish state directly. “Clearly its other strategy failed and they decided to adopt a more direct approach,” Rynhold explained.
He added that the war in Gaza will take time to come to an end. “The presence of the hostages and the concealing of Hamas amongst the civilian population makes it a complicated effort,” he said.
According to Rynhold, there are two scenarios which could end the war.
One relates to the new humanitarian aid effort carried out by the US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. The aim of this effort is to distance Hamas from aid distribution and weaken its hold on Gaza’s population, thus putting strong-arming into a ceasefire agreement that would also see the release of the remaining hostages.
Israel has also reportedly provided support for an anti-Hamas armed group in Gaza as part of a strategy to weaken Hamas.
“The combination of a possible defeat of Iran with Hamas losing control in Gaza could embolden Hamas’ opposition in Gaza,” Rynhold said.
Despite months of negotiations, the war in Gaza continues on largely due to the deadlock over the hostage and a complete lack of common ground between Israel and Hamas.
Israel insists on the release of all hostages and Hamas’ removal from power, while Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal—positions that cannot be reconciled. In addition, Israel’s war effort against Hamas, which includes the painstaking dismantling of its tunnel network, is also slowed down by its fear that hostages will be killed during the military operation.
Another potential path forward would be if American involvement in Israel’s war against Iran allows Washington to make demands of Israel in return.
It’s too soon to say which scenario, if either, will unfold. Hamas is a persistent enemy of Israel’s, with different motivations from other terrorist groups.
Looking around, Hamas is the only organization that was not completely shocked, because it is the only one that had a surprise element against Israel. It has built itself for years and is fighting in a territory that it has no way out of. Hamas also holds the card that no other Israeli enemy has—the hostages.
“Looking around, Hamas is the only organization that was not completely shocked, because it is the only one that had a surprise element against Israel,” Aviad said. “It has built itself for years and is fighting in a territory that it has no way out of. Hamas also holds the card that no other Israeli enemy has—the hostages, and this is the root cause that complicates the fighting.”
On Wednesday and Thursday, the Israeli military continued to pound Iran relentlessly.
“Iran takes more and more hits, and the war in Gaza continues like it’s in a parallel universe,” Aviad said. “Hamas isn’t as dependent on Iran as other organizations, making what is happening there almost irrelevant to Gaza.”
He believes staunch American support for Israel, which could increase if the US joins the offensive against Iran, could further entrench Hamas in its position.
“Hamas sees that Israel has a blank check from Washington,” he said. “Hamas has no choice but to take matters to the brink. Hamas sees itself as facing one of the world’s strongest armies and it is still standing—therefore it will fight until its demands are met. As a movement, it would rather die with honor than give in to Israel or release the hostages.”
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been around for decades. Despite the major changes the Middle East has been going through, rooted in the current Gaza conflict, it is expected to remain unsolved.
“Israel appears to be resetting history and the region, but the heart of the conflict is still there and will accompany us for years to come with continued bloodshed,” Aviad said.